Lambeau Field – Green Bay, WI
Kickoff: Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Line: Green Bay -9, Total: 46

A Chicago win at Lambeau on Thursday would put the Packers in a tough hole, and likely be the highlight of the Bears’ season.

With a 13-0 lead over the Jaguars at halftime and a 16-7 lead with under nine minutes remaining in the game, the Bears (1-5, 1-5 ATS) seemed well on their way to getting their second win of the season at home on Sunday. But they allowed a field goal with 4:59 remaining and then the knockout punch, a 51-yard Blake Bortles touchdown pass with 2:49 on the clock to lose 17-16 to Jacksonville. The decisive pass was a 15-yard slant to Arrelious Benn, who slipped and rolled on the ground before getting up untouched and running in for the score. It was an embarrassing finish to a game in which the Bears outgained the Jags 389-317, possessed the ball for 10 more minutes and had zero turnovers to Jacksonville’s two. They weren’t the only NFC North team to take an L at home, though, as the Packers (3-2, 3-2 ATS) lost 30-16 at Lambeau Field to the visiting Dallas Cowboys. Green Bay went down 7-0 five minutes into the game and trailed from there on out. The defense, which entered the game with a top-ranked and historically good run defense, allowed 191 rushing yards, 157 from rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott. QB Aaron Rodgers (60.2 CMP%, 1170 yards, 10 TDs, 4 INTs, 2 rushing TDs) was outplayed by rookie Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott, who posted a 117.4 passer rating to Rodgers’ 90.8. Rodgers threw an interception and also lost a fumble, and so did two of his wide receivers. Over the last 10 seasons, home teams with win percentages between .510 and .600 are 35-71 ATS against teams with losing records. Over the past five seasons, Aaron Rodgers is 27-13 ATS as a home favorite.

Bears QB Brian Hoyer (68.8 CMP%, 1,396 yards, 6 TDs, 0 INTs) completed 30-of-49 passes against the Jaguars for 302 yards. After taking over for an injured Jay Cutler late in Week 2, he’s third in the league in completion percentage, seventh with a passer rating of 108.0 and has the most passing attempts of any quarterbacks who have thrown one interception or fewer. The problem for the Bears has been the touchdown number. Chicago kicked three field goals in the red zone against Jacksonville, when converting just one of those into touchdowns theoretically would’ve gotten them the win. They’re 25th in the league with a red zone percentage of 47.37 percent. “Touchdowns win games…. You see what three points gets us,” said WR Alshon Jeffery (29 catches, 487 yards, 0 TDs) after the loss. While he’s still the Bears’ most-targeted wideout and is 10th in the NFL with 16.8 yards per reception, he hasn’t seen the red zone production he’s become accustomed to with Cutler. Hoyer has also gotten significant production out of receivers Eddie Royal (29 catches, 338 yards, 2 TDs) and Cameron Meredith (26 catches, 295 yards, TD) and TE Zach Miller (31 catches, 265 yards, TD). After RB Jeremy Langford (31 carries, 116 yards, 2 TDs) went down with injury, RB Jordan Howard (66 carries, 330 yards, TD; 14 catches, 128 yards, TD) took over and outperformed him. While Langford may return to full health soon, it’s likely Howard will still see the bulk of the carries. He rushed for over 110 yards in back-to-back games immediately before a disappointing 34-yard day against Jacksonville. On defense, the Bears are 11th in the league with 341.2 yards allowed per game and 19th with 23.8 yards allowed per game. LB Jerrell Freeman is eighth in the league and leads the team with 58 total tackles, and LB Willie Young is fourth in the league with six sacks.

The unofficial media ban on talking about Aaron Rodgers’ poor play recently appears to have been lifted. The hall-of-fame quarterback looks uncomfortable in the pocket, often choosing to throw off of his back foot or on the run in situations when he’s not really forced to. His 60.2 completion percentage is 25th in the NFL and his 6.46 yards per attempt are 27th. What’s especially odd is that he’s faced very little pressure from pass rushers—the Packers offensive line is the best pass-blocking line in the league by some metrics. He made an awful read on a second-half interception on Sunday and has downright inaccurate at times. WR Jordy Nelson (26 catches, 312 yards, 5 TDs) is 19th in the league in targets but only 36th in catches—and only 61st in the league with 12 yards per catch. WR Randall Cobb (28 catches, 293 yards, TD) leads the team in catches, and receivers Davante Adams (15 catches, 218 yards, 3 TDs) and Ty Montgomery (10 catches, 98 yards) have also seen balls thrown their way. Tight ends Richard Rodgers and Jared Cook have combined for only 14 catches, 130 yards and a touchdown. RB Eddie Lacy (71 carries, 360 yards, 0 TDs) has been productive when given the ball with a 5.1 yard per carry average. Despite playing only five games, he’s third in the NFL with four carries of 20 yards or more. Defensively, Green Bay is 10th in the league with 339 yards allowed per game and third with 72.4 rushing yards per game. Prior to Elliott’s performance on Sunday, the Packers had allowed 171 combined rushing yards in four games. The best single-game individual performance in that stretch? 39 yards from Jacksonville’s T.J. Yeldon. Their true nature is somewhere between those two extremes, as they faced poor running games early on and the Cowboys’ may be the best in the league. LB Nick Perry is 10th in the NFL with 4.5 sacks.