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Virginia Tech hosts Miami on Thursday
By: Sam Chase - StatFox
Published: 10/18/2016  at  5:58:00 PM
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MIAMI HURRICANES (4-2)
at VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES (4-2)

Lane Stadium – Blacksburg, VA
Kickoff: Thursday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: Virginia Tech -6, Total: 51

Two preseason favorites in the ACC’s Coastal Division look to rebound from conference losses.

Virginia Tech (4-2, 3-3 ATS) entered the weekend feeling pretty good about themselves. They had won 34-3 as 3.5-point favorites the previous week at North Carolina and were traveling to Syracuse as 22.5-point favorites to face an overmatched Syracuse team. They’d collect the win and prepare for a huge home game against Miami this week. Unfortunately for the Hokies, things didn’t quite work out that way, as they fell 31-17 in a surprise loss to the Orange. Tech gave up an incredible 561 yards and 32 first downs, both pretty good first steps to losing a road game. QB Jerod Evans (62..7 CMP%, 1,352 yards, 17 TDs 2 INTs) had a good game, completing 20-of-33 passes for 307 yards and two touchdowns, and also rushing 11 times for 61 yards. He also committed both of Virginia Tech’s turnovers on the day, though, with an interception and a fumble. Their 461 yards of total offense was their second-best output of the season, but the 561 allowed was by far their worst. Traveling to Blacksburg this week is a 4-2 Hurricanes team (4-2 ATS) that has lost two straight games, both at home. They lost to rival Florida State 20-19 two weeks ago (FSU +1.5) and, this past week, fell 20-13 to North Carolina (UNC +6). Those two teams are the best Miami’s played thus far, and it showed: They put up a season-low 263 yards of offense against the Seminoles and allowed a season-worst 461 yards against the Tar Heels. The Hurricanes went down 10-0 in the first quarter and 20-3 at halftime against UNC before mounting a comeback, cutting the lead to seven with just under 7:00 on the clock before losing a fumble on the would-be game-tying drive. Over the last three seasons, Miami is 2-8 ATS against teams averaging eight or more yards per passing attempt. Over the past three seasons, the betting public is correct when moving the money line in Virginia Tech games 70.4 percent of the time (19-8).

Miami QB Brad Kaaya (62.0 CMP%, 1,373 yards, 10 TDs, 4 INTs) wasn’t overly impressive against UNC, completing 16-of-31 passes for 224 yards against a UNC defense that’s 31st in the country in passing defense, allowing 201.3 yards per game through the air. Many consider Kaaya to be a top quarterback prospect for the 2017 NFL Draft and, for the most part, he’s looked like it. He’s third in the ACC with 8.7 yards per attempt and fifth with a 150.8 passer rating. Other than an awful performance in an easy 38-10 win over Florida Atlantic in the Canes’ second game, his worst two showings have been in the past two weeks. It makes sense that he’s been less effective against better competition, but it’s also reasonable to expect him to step up in big games. This week gives him a good chance to do so—if Miami falls to 4-3, there won’t be many big games left. WR Ahmmon Richards (17 catches, 359 yards, TD) is third in the conference with 21.1 yards per catch, WR Stacy Coley (24 catches, 303 yards, 6 TDs) was Second Team All-ACC last season and TE David Njoku (14 catches, 232 yards, TD) has been a valuable receiver for Kaaya. RBs Mark Walton (101 carries, 566 yards, 8 TDs) and Joseph Yearby (64 carries, 434 yards, 6 TDs) have been a two-headed monster on the ground, as they’re fourth and ninth in the league in rushing yards, respectively, and seventh and fourth in yards per carry. Miami’s defense is 14th in the country (but only fifth in the ACC) with 314 yards allowed per game, and tied for fourth (first in the ACC) with 14 points allowed per game. Freshman DE Joe Jackson leads the team with four sacks, and they’re sixth in the conference as a unit with 19 sacks.

Evans, a junior, has had a fantastic season behind center for the Hokies. In his first season as a starter, he’s second in the ACC in yards per attempt with 8.8, second in touchdown passes and fifth in completion percentage. He’s one of only three quarterbacks in the country with 16 or more touchdown passes and two or fewer interceptions thrown. He’s also a threat on the ground, with three rushing touchdowns and 319 rushing yards, second most for a quarterback in the ACC behind Lamar Jackson, who leads all quarterbacks in the country in rushing yards. Evans’ numbers would be even more impressive if not for the UNC game, wherein he completed seven of 17 passes for 75 yards in a Hurricane Matthew-fueled rainstorm. WR Isaiah Ford (32 catches, 459 yards, 5 TDs) is seventh in the ACC in receiving yards and second in touchdown receptions. WR Cam Phillips (20 catches, 341 yards, 2 TDs) has also been effective at wideout, and TE Bucky Hodges (18 catches, 257 yards, 3 TDs) has made a case as best tight end in the conference. Six Hokies have caught touchdown passes this season, with all of them pulling in at least two. RB Travon McMillian (74 carries, 327 yards, 3 TDs), the team’s leading rusher from last season, is only 19th in the ACC in rushing yards, in large part because he’s lost carries to Evans (72) and RBs Marshawn Williams (33 carries, 142 yards, TD) and Sam Rogers (32 carries, 109 yards). McMillian has more yards per carry than both Williams and Rogers. The defense is seventh in the country with 292 yards allowed per game and 15th with 18.2 points allowed per game. DE Ken Ekanem leads the team with five of the team’s 12 sacks. LB Andrew Motuapuaka leads with 57 total tackles, and CB Greg Stroman has three interceptions.


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