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Red-hot #25 LSU hosts #23 Ole Miss Saturday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 10/20/2016  at  8:30:00 PM
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OLE MISS REBELS (3-3)
at LSU TIGERS (4-2)

Tiger Stadium – Baton Rouge, LA
Kickoff: Saturday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: LSU -6.0, Total: 60.5

#25 LSU will be looking to stay hot with a win over #23 Ole Miss on Saturday night.

Ole Miss has three losses this season, but the team still finds itself in the AP top-25. That speaks volumes to the talent of the Rebels and they know that they can beat pretty much any team in the country when they are playing well. Ole Miss also happens to be very good when playing in Baton Rouge, as the team is 9-1 ATS in its past 10 games in Death Valley. LSU has, however, won-and-covered in each of its two games under interim head coach Ed Orgeron. The offense has clicked in those contests, averaging 43.5 PPG in the two victories. RB Leonard Fournette (386 yards, 2 TD) is set to return in this one after missing two games in a row, so the Tigers offense should be getting even better. LSU will have revenge on its mind in this game, as Ole Miss defeated the Tigers 38-17 as a seven-point home favorite when the teams met last season. One trend that sticks out when looking at this game is the fact that Ole Miss’ Hugh Freeze is 5-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points in his career with the team. He’s also 17-6 ATS versus teams that are allowing 7.5 or more yards per punt return with Ole Miss.

QB Chad Kelly (1,849 yards, 14 TD, 5 INT) had a rough day throwing the ball against Arkansas last week, as he was just 18-for-39 with 253 yards, one touchdown and one interception. He did, however, run the ball well, as he rushed for 89 yards with two touchdowns in the loss. While that was a positive for Kelly, he’s going to need to be more efficient as a passer moving forward. LSU is a very good team defensively and it will certainly make Kelly pay for any of his mistakes in this one. Ole Miss could turn to RB Akeem Judd (343 yards, 3 TD) and the running game a bit more often on Saturday. If he can find some success then it just might allow Kelly to operate with less pressure. Defensively, all the Rebels will need to do is find a way to stop the run. That’s no easy task against Fournette but LSU is not a team that will beat them over the top and Ole Miss has to make this Tigers team pass more often.

LSU looks like a new team under Ed Orgeron and the Tigers now get Fournette back for this big meeting with Ole Miss. Fournette has had three weeks to get healthy and that should really help him in this game. He has rushed for at least 100 yards in every game he has played this season and the LSU offensive line has been performing at a high level over the past few weeks. Fournette’s presence in the lineup should also help QB Danny Etling (925 yards, 6 TD, 2 INT) operate. Etling was great against Southern Mississippi, throwing for 276 yards with three touchdowns. If he can make some plays through the air in this game then LSU should win pretty easily.


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