McLane Stadium – Waco, TX
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Baylor -9.0, Total: 70.0

#13 Baylor will be looking to get back on track with a victory over TCU in Waco on Saturday.

TCU has had a rough year and the team is coming off of a 27-24 home loss to Texas Tech last week. The Horned Frogs were 10-point favorites in that game and the total was 87.5, so it’s safe to say that both teams did not live up to their expectations offensively. TCU, however, has a lousy defense, so it needs to put up points in order to have a chance to win games. Baylor, meanwhile, is coming off of a loss of its own, as the Bears were defeated 35-34 at the hands of the Longhorns. Baylor was a 3.5-point road favorite in that game, and the loss has seemingly knocked the team out of College Football Playoff contention. That doesn’t mean it’s a lost season for the Bears, though, as they can still play in one of the bigger bowl games and that would be big for a team that faced as much criticism as they did over the offseason. TCU won 28-21 when these teams played last year, but Baylor had won the previous two meetings between these teams. When the teams last met in Waco (Oct. 11, 2014), the Bears won 61-58 as seven-point favorites and one would think there’d be a ton of points scored in this one as well. It is worth noting that TCU is 10-1 ATS when facing teams that allow 7.5 or fewer yards per punt return over the past three seasons. The Horned Frogs are, however, 0-7 ATS when playing on Saturday this season.

QB Kenny Hill (2,450 yards, 13 TD, 10 INT) was benched for poor play last week, but head coach Gary Patterson said that Hill will still be the guy under center on Saturday but could lose snaps to QB Foster Sawyer (119 yards, 1 TD). Hill has been absolutely miserable recently, throwing for just two touchdowns with five interceptions over the past three games. He’ll need to start taking care of the ball, but it’s not crazy to imagine him putting up big numbers in this game. Hill is facing a Baylor defense that is very beatable and this should be a high scoring game. RB Kyle Hicks (597 yards, 7 TD) will be an x-factor in this one, as TCU needs to get the ground game going. Hicks is an explosive runner and he is also a weapon out of the backfield, as he has caught 31 passes for 340 yards and two touchdowns this season. Look for him to make a ton of plays in this one, as Hill will likely use him as a security blanket at times. WR KaVontae Turpin (20 rec, 235 yards) is also worth mentioning, as the TCU star returned from a torn PCL to catch four balls for 39 yards against Texas Tech last week. If he can creep closer to 100% health then this offense will be a lot better the remainder of the season. Defensively, the Horned Frogs will need to stop the run, as the Bears use it to open up their passing game. Russell also really likes to take off, so they can limit his ability to change this game by keeping him in the pocket.

Baylor is coming off of a rough loss to Texas, but the team should feel encouraged by how QB Seth Russell (1,696 yards, 18 TD, 5 INT) played in that one. Russell was one of the most dominant players in football last season, but he fractured a bone in his neck and ended up missing the second half of the year. In his return this season, Russell struggled a bit the first few weeks of the year. He has, however, regained his confidence and is now running the ball the way he did last year. Russell rushed for 138 yards and a touchdown against Texas and that marked his return as a dual threat quarterback. Look for him to make plays with both his arm and his legs in this one. When he does throw, Russell spreads it around a bunch but WR KD Cannon (35 rec, 531 yards, 6 TD) is easily his favorite receiver. Cannon has caught touchdowns in five of the six games he has played in and is coming off of a five-catch, 86-yard performance against Texas. Look for him to have a big game against this miserable TCU defense on Saturday. Defensively, the Bears will need to sit back and wait for Kenny Hill to make mistakes.