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#15 LSU hosts #1 Alabama on Saturday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 11/4/2016  at  6:59:00 AM
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ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (8-0)
at LSU TIGERS (5-2)

Tiger Stadium – Baton Rouge, LA
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Alabama -7.0, Total: 47.0

Interim head coach Ed Orgeron and #15 LSU will be looking for a signature win when the team hosts undefeated #1 Alabama on Saturday.

The Crimson Tide have championship aspirations, but the team knows that it must go through LSU on Saturday. The Tigers are a very good football team, but its hard for anybody to really psyche out this Alabama group. The Crimson Tide have covered in six of their eight wins and the team has already defeated a number of quality opponents this year. They faced USC in the season opener and have since gone on to defeat Ole Miss, Arkansas, Tennessee and Texas A&M. Look for them to be hungry to defeat the Tigers on Saturday. LSU, however, still feels that it has a chance to make it to the College Football Playoff and the team can definitely keep itself in the conversation with a win this weekend. That victory would also likely allow Orgeron to keep his job with the team and the players surely want that to happen and will be motivated by that on Saturday. Alabama and LSU have met twice over the past three seasons and the Tide have won-and-covered in both of those games. They have also won five straight against the Tigers dating back to 2012. One trend worth keeping an eye on in this game is the fact that LSU is 6-0 ATS in home games after scoring 37 points or more in its most recent game over the past three seasons. Alabama, however, is 39-20 ATS in road games after three or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

Alabama is the most dominant team in football once again and that starts on the defensive side of the ball. The Crimson Tide are allowing just 14.9 PPG this season (4th in NCAAF) and is remarkable considering the teams they have faced this season. Alabama also happens to have the nation’s best rushing defense, as the team is allowing just 70.1 yards per game on the ground (1st in NCAAF). That is a key factor coming into this one, as the Tide will need to stop Fournette in order to win this game. Offensively, QB Jalen Hurts (1,578 yards, 12 TD, 5 INT) will be tasked with providing a bulk of the offense on Saturday. Hurts threw for 164 yards with two touchdowns against A&M last game, but he did have two interceptions in that game. He cannot afford to turn the ball over that often on Saturday or Alabama will be upset in Baton Rouge. Expect him to be more careful with his throws and don’t be surprised if he uses his legs a ton in this game. He has rushed for six touchdowns over the past three contests and offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin knows that his running ability puts opposing defenses on edge. If Hurts can get LSU off balance then he’ll have a much easier time throwing to guys like WR Calvin Ridley (44 rec, 497 yards, 5 TD) and TE O.J. Howard (22 rec, 278 yards, 2 TD).

LSU has found some offense since Ed Orgeron took over as head coach, as the team has scored at least 38 points in each of its past three games. One thing that certainly helped against Ole Miss last week was the return of RB Leonard Fournette (670 yards, 5 TD). Fournette missed two games before facing the Rebels and ended up rushing for 284 yards with three touchdowns on just 16 carries. He also caught three passes for 25 yards in that game. Expect the Tigers to do everything they can to get him the ball in open space on Saturday, but that won’t be easy. He rushed for just 31 yards on 19 carries when he faced Alabama last year and the team will certainly be planning for him in this one. One thing that would really help LSU is QB Danny Etling (1,129 yards, 7 TD, 3 INT) finding some success early. Etling is nothing special at the quarterback position, but he is still an improvement over what the Tigers have had the past few seasons. If he can limit his turnovers and make some plays over the top then the Tide will not be able to load up and do everything they can to stop Fournette. Defensively, LSU must do its best to keep Hurts in the pocket. He is at his best when he is improvising and the Tigers need to make sure that doesn’t happen often in this one.


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