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Georgia hosts #8 Auburn on Saturday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 11/9/2016  at  4:13:00 PM
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AUBURN TIGERS (7-2)
at GEORGIA BULLDOGS (5-4)

Sanford Stadium – Athens, GA
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Auburn -10.5, Total: 48.5

Georgia will be looking to guarantee itself bowl eligibility with a home win over #8 Auburn on Saturday.

The Tigers are one of the hottest teams in college football, as their 23-16 win over Vanderbilt was their sixth straight victory. Auburn didn’t cover the 25-point spread in that game, but the team had covered in its previous five games and is an impressive 7-2 ATS on the season. Georgia, meanwhile, had lost four of its previous five games before beating Kentucky 27-24 as a 2.5-point road underdog last week. The Bulldogs don’t have much to look forward to for the rest of the season, so expect them to play this game with a ton of energy. This is, by far, their biggest remaining game this season and an upset over a top-10 team could be big for the team and this fan base. Georgia has had the upper hand in this series recently, as the Bulldogs have won-and-covered in each of their past two meetings with the Tigers. They are, however, a miserable 5-20 ATS in home games when playing against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or better since 1992. They’re also facing an Auburn team that is 15-4 ATS in road games after three straight games where they committed one or fewer turnovers in that span.

Auburn did not play well in last week’s win over Vanderbilt, but the team should come out and be ready to take care of business on Saturday. QB Sean White (1,617 yards, 9 TD, 2 INT) is healthier than he was last week, when he missed the first half due to a shoulder injury. Head coach Gus Malzahn didn’t think he’d be able to play in the game, but White felt a bit better than he did all week and the team decided to use him in relief for that one. He proceeded to throw for 106 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. He has now thrown just one pick over the past eight games and White will be looking to play mistake-free ball this weekend. The bulk of the offense for Auburn will come from the running of RB Kamryn Pettway (1,106 yards, 7 TD), assuming he is healthy enough to play through the leg injury he suffered last game. Pettway has rushed for at least 169 yards in four straight games and has racked up a total of six touchdowns in that span. He should be able to find some holes in this Georgia defense as well. Defensively, if the Tigers can stop the run then they’ll have no trouble winning this game. Jacob Eason has arm-talent, but he is not going to win games by himself without a running game.

After rushing for only 21 yards in a loss to Florida on Oct. 29, the Bulldogs exploded for 215 yards on the ground against Kentucky last week. RB Sony Michel (487 yards, 2 TD) was the catalyst for Georgia, rushing for 127 yards and a touchdown. He and RB Nick Chubb (691 yards, 5 TD) are going to need to be effective running the ball on Saturday or the Bulldogs are not going to be able to win this game. As previously mentioned, QB Jacob Eason (1,754 yards, 11 TD, 5 INT) has a big arm, but he is at his best when Georgia is running the ball well. That allows him to use the play action pass, and takes a ton of pressure off of him in the pocket as well. Defensively, it’s unlikely that Georgia is going to find a way to pick off Sean White, but he also isn’t going to beat them over the top either. He is more of a game manager for Auburn, and the team prefers to do most of its damage on the ground. Georgia should be able to stop the run, especially considering the team knows its coming. If the Bulldogs can do that then they just might pull off this upset.


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