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Iowa hosts unbeaten #2 Michigan Saturday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 11/10/2016  at  10:27:00 AM
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MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (9-0)
at IOWA HAWKEYES (5-4)

Kinnick Stadium – Iowa City, IA
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Michigan -22.0, Total: 51.0

#2 Michigan will be looking to stay perfect with a win over the Hawkeyes in Iowa City on Saturday.

Michigan is coming off of an impressive victory last week, as the Wolverines beat Maryland 59-3 as 30-point home favorites. Michigan was absolutely dominant offensively in that game, as the team racked up 660 yards of total offense in the win. Iowa, meanwhile, lost 41-14 as a six-point road underdog against Penn State last week. The Hawkeyes have now lost two straight games both SU and ATS, but this is still a talented group. Iowa also happens to be 4-1 SU in the team’s past five meetings with Michigan, so the Hawkeyes will be feeling confident in their ability to knock off the Wolverines in this one. One trend that sticks out when looking at this contest is the fact that Iowa is 25-5 ATS versus teams that rush for 5.25 or more yards per carry since 1992. The Hawkeyes are also 17-5 ATS versus teams that score 37 or more points per game in that span. Michigan, however, will be happy to know that its up against an Iowa team that also happens to be a lousy 0-6 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the past two seasons.

Michigan is coming off of a blowout victory over Maryland and QB Wilton Speight (2,053 yards, 15 TD, 3 INT) played his best game of the season in that one. Speight completed 19 of 24 passes for 362 yards, two touchdowns and no picks. He also rushed for a touchdown, and the team will be hoping that he brings the same energy into this one. While Michigan hasn’t played away from home too often this season, it’s a bit concerning that Speight has thrown 14 of his 15 touchdowns in Ann Arbor. He’ll need to find a way to get comfortable in Kinnick Stadium or the Wolverines could be looking at a huge upset loss. RB De’Veon Smith (564 yards, 8 TD) will also be important in this one. Smith had a big game against Maryland, rushing for 114 yards with three touchdowns. He has now rushed for six touchdowns over the past three games and it’d be big if he can get it going on Saturday. Defensively, the Wolverines just need to keep doing what they’re doing. Michigan is allowing just 10.7 PPG this season (1st in NCAAF), and that gives them the best unit in the nation by 2.5 points. Alabama is the team allowing 13.2 PPG and many have called the Crimson Tide’s defense “historically good”.

Iowa hasn’t performed the way many hoped this season, but the Hawkeyes will come out fired up and ready to go on Saturday. Iowa is battling for bowl eligibility and the team also will badly want to spoil Michigan’s perfect season with a win. The two most important players in this one will be RBs LeShun Daniels Jr. (642 yards, 6 TD) and Akrum Wadley (664 yards, 8 TD). Both guys have struggled over the past two weeks, as the two of them have combined to rush for 125 yards over the past two weeks. This is a team that gets a bulk of its offense from the running game, so head coach Kirk Ferentz will need to get creative and find a way to get them into the open field on Saturday. Wadley is the more talented of the two, and he has actually made an impact as a receiver out of the backfield the past two weeks. In that span, Wadley has caught 12 passes for 104 yards and a touchdown. Look for Iowa to get him some screen passes early on Saturday. Defensively, if the Hawkeyes can slow down the run then that would be huge for the team. Wilton Speight does not play as well on the road, so he might make a few mistakes if Iowa is able to force Michigan to throw often in this game.


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