Ohio Stadium – Columbus, OH
Kickoff: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET
Line: Ohio State -6.5, Total: 45.5

There will be a lot on the line when #2 Ohio State hosts rival #3 Michigan on Saturday.

Both Michigan and Ohio State are hoping to make it to the College Football Playoff, but that is going to be very difficult for the loser of this game on Saturday. If Michigan were to lose this game then Penn State would make it to the Big Ten championship with a win over Michigan State this weekend. With two losses and no conference title, the committee would have a tough time justifying a berth for the Wolverines. The Buckeyes, meanwhile, would need to win this game and have Penn State lose in order to get to the conference championship, but they can also secure themselves a spot in the College Football Playoff by winning this game on Saturday alone. They’d have the most impressive resume for a one-loss team in the nation, and they know what’s at stake here. This series has been all Ohio State over the years, though. The Buckeyes won 42-13 when they traveled to Ann Arbor last year, and they have now won four straight games against the Wolverines. Ohio State did, however, only cover in two of those games. Favoring Michigan in this game is the fact that Ohio State is a lousy 6-16 ATS versus teams that allowing only 5.75 or fewer passing yards per attempt since 1992. The Buckeyes are, however, an impressive 6-0 ATS versus teams that are outscoring their opponents by 17 or more points per game on the year over the past three seasons.

Michigan has been one of the best teams in the nation, but the injury to QB Wilton Speight (2,156 yards, 15 TD, 4 INT) casts a big shadow over the Wolverines. Speight has been very good this season, but he is questionable for this game. Speight missed the game against Indiana last week, but he did practice this week. If he can go then the Wolverines have a much better chance of winning, as backup QB John O’Korn (173 yards, 2 TD) threw for just 59 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions against Indiana. O’Korn might not have turned the ball over, but he also didn’t get this passing game going. Michigan cannot afford to have that same thing happen against Ohio State in this one. Regardless of who is under center, RB De’Veon Smith (750 yards, 10 TD) will be the most important player on offense on Saturday. Smith rushed for 158 yards and two scores against the Hoosiers last week, and it’s tough to imagine Michigan staying in this game without another 100-yard performance from the senior. Defensively, the Wolverines need a big performance from LB/S Jabrill Peppers (65 tackles, 4.0 sacks). Peppers is the anchor of Michigan’s impenetrable defense, and he’ll need to show up on Saturday.

Ohio State knows that a win will likely secure a spot in the College Football Playoff, so this team will come out with a ton of energy on Saturday. QB J.T. Barrett (2,304 yards, 24 TD, 4 INT) is the guy that’ll need to lead his team to a victory. Barrett dominated Michigan a year ago, throwing for 113 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions, and also adding 139 yards with three scores on the ground. The team could not find a way to contain him inside the pocket, and he’ll likely use his legs to beat this Wolverines team again on Saturday. Helping Barrett on the ground will be RB Mike Weber (1,046 yards, 8 TD). Weber is no Ezekiel Elliott, but he is still extremely hard to bring down. He’s rushing for 6.3 yards per carry this season, and it’s likely he’ll find some big holes on Saturday as well. Defensively, the main goal will be to stop the run. Michigan is not going to be throwing the ball all over the field in this one, so shutting down the running game would really stifle the Wolverines. The Buckeyes would also be wise to put some pressure on Michigan’s quarterback in this one, as it could lead to some bad decisions from whoever is throwing the ball.