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#15 Iowa State hosts Cincy on Thursday
By: Dave Schoenholt - StatFox
Published: 11/30/2016  at  8:28:00 PM
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CINCINNATI BEARCATS (5-1)

at IOWA STATE CYCLONES (5-1)

Hilton Coliseum – Ames, IA
Tip-off: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: N/A

#15 Iowa State hosts fellow 5-1 team, Cincinnati, in a rematch of a thrilling non-conference battle in 2015.

Viewers for this battle on ESPN Thursday night can only hope for a show as entertaining as the one the Cyclones and Bearcats put on in Fifth Third Arena last December. Visiting Iowa State took down host Cincinnati in that one (81-79, CIN -5) in a back-and-forth affair culminating in a game-winning three for the Cyclones with 11 seconds left. Coach Mick Cronin’s Bearcats had three looks at the rim in their final possession but couldn’t convert on an offensive rebound put-back or potential game-winning three at the buzzer in a wild closing scene. The victory was (now-second year coach) Steve Prohm’s first win at Iowa State over a ranked opponent. For the rematch, key F Gary Clark (7.3 PPG, 5.7 RPG) is questionable with a sprained ankle. Clark was hurt after only six minutes in Cincinnati’s most recent win over Lipscomb (91-68) on Saturday. The Bearcats, 3-2 ATS, have been favorites in every game this season but dropped their lone contest this season as a two-point favorite on a neutral court to No. 21 Rhode Island (76-71) in the Hall of Fame Tipoff on November 20th. Cincinnati rebounded to smother Penn State the next day (71-50, CIN -10) and then dispatched Samford (70-55) at home on the 23rd but failed to cover at -19. Iowa State is 3-1 ATS on the season but will have to bounce back after their first loss of the year on Sunday night in the Advocare Invitational finals (73-71, ISU +4.5) against No. 11 Gonzaga in Florida. The Cyclones battled back from an 18-point deficit in the second half in that one. It was their third game in four days after squeaking by Indiana State (73-71, Cyclones -13) and then essentially playing a road game (Miami in Florida) and thumping the Hurricanes 73-56 (ISU +3). The Cyclones were 8-3 (7-4 ATS) after a loss last season. Before last season, these two teams last met on a neutral court (Las Vegas) in 2012 with Cincinnati pulling out a 78-70 win (CIN +4.5). “Hilton Magic” is in play with the Cyclones proudly boasting one of the most intimidating home atmospheres in college hoops. Iowa State was 14-2 straight up at home in 2015-16 (but only 6-6-1 ATS).

Coach Cronin’s Bearcats were 6-6 (5-7 ATS) as visitors last season and will have their hands obviously full with Iowa State on Thursday. Possibly without Clark, their best defender and leading returning rebounder from last season at 8.8 RPG, the Bearcats will be tested by the perimeter play that Iowa State boasts. That said, Clark was not being relied upon offensively thanks to the leap that sophomore G Jacob Evans (17.8 PPG) has made, and thanks to the frontcourt addition of NC State transfer F Kyle Washington (16.8 PPG, 9.3 RPG). Not that Washington hasn’t seen a massive improvement over his last collegiate production (6.8 PPG in 2014-15 with the Wolfpack) because the year off and new role has obviously made him a new player. At 6’9”, Washington should be able to punish the smaller Cyclones in the paint, and should be looking at double-digit rebounds as well. The 6’6” Evans was mentioned often as Cincinnati’s breakout candidate and he hasn’t disappointed thus far. Evans shot only 37% from the field (33% 3PT) so his 59% FG (45% 3PT) is due for some regression, but the sophomore didn’t shy away from the spotlight saving his best game of the season (25 pts, 8-12 FG) against No. 21 Rhode Island. Evans put up a solid 14 points and five rebounds as a freshman reserve last season against Iowa State. The straw that stirs the proverbial drink for Cincinnati is senior G Troy Caupain (9.5 PPG, 4.8 APG, 1.7 SPG). Caupain, also taking a backseat to Evans and Washington offensively in the early-going, is the guy Cincinnati calls on to take their biggest shots (see last season’s 4OT win against Connecticut). His one-on-one matchup with Cyclones’ star guard Monte Morris will be in the crosshairs on Thursday night. Containing Morris goes a long way to shutting down Iowa State. To Caupain’s credit, he put up 18 points against Morris last season, but wasn’t able to slow the Iowa State guard down on the other end. Cincinnati’s trademark defense only forced seven turnovers and four steals.

Iowa State matches up well with Cincinnati due to the fact that they can rely on the aforementioned Morris (16.0 PPG, 6.5 APG, 1.2 TO) as the assist-to-turnover king of college basketball. With the senior, Morris, as has been the case for his three seasons as starting point guard for the Cyclones, you know the basketball is in good hands. Not only did Morris put up his usual 16 points and seven assists in last season’s matchup, but he came away with four steals. Taking a career-high 12.7 shots per game this season, Morris’ efficiency hasn’t suffered, as he’s shooting 53% (a career high). Iowa State has him working off the ball now as much as ever and his long distance shooting (43% 3PT) shows that. Fifth year senior G Naz Mitrou-Long (15.2 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 3.3 APG) gives coach Prohm the luxury of finding more ways to get Morris scoring opportunities, as Long (who was hurt last season and missed the Cincinnati game) can slide over to point guard. His long-range touch is still missing (29.0% from 3PT) but the 6’4” guard is really crashing the boards (career high before this season was 2.9 RPG) to make up for the lack of a true post player on Iowa State’s roster. Speaking of the lack of big men on Iowa State’s roster, we get to one of the more unique players in the country, 6’5” senior Deonte Burton (14.0 PPG, 8.5 RPG). Built like an NFL tight end (250 lbs), coach Prohm played long stretches of small-ball against Gonzaga with Burton at center and coaxed 29 points and 12 rebounds out of the former Marquette Golden Eagle in the loss on Sunday. Burton is extremely inconsistent, though, and Iowa State will have to hope that his good play against their two best opponents to date (Miami and Gonzaga) sticks around for the rest of the season. Will Iowa State get the Burton who lacked assertiveness in the early going (less than 20 minutes, only seven shot attempts in two out of their first three games) or will they get the unstoppable Burton who was 13-for-24 FG against Gonzaga? It bears repeating that while Iowa State will get the natural boost from the fervent crowd at Hilton Coliseum, they are playing their fourth game in seven days.


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