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Chiefs host division rival Raiders Thursday
By: Sam Chase - StatFox
Published: 12/8/2016  at  9:36:00 AM
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OAKLAND RAIDERS (10-2)
at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (9-3)

Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO
Kickoff: Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Line: Kansas City -3, Total: 47

It’s another epic AFC West battle on Thursday night, as the red-hot Raiders and Chiefs meet in Kansas City.

The Raiders earned their sixth straight win on Sunday with a 38-24 home victory against the Bills (OAK -3). The win advanced their record to 10-2 (8-4 ATS); they hold sole possession of the top spot in the AFC West and share the best record in the AFC with the Patriots. It was a victory that was very much in doubt in the second half, as the Raiders trailed 24-9 midway through the third quarter before exploding offensively to score the game’s final 29 points. Oakland forced two turnovers, including a strip sack by LB Khalil Mack on Buffalo QB Tyrod Taylor as the Bills tried to make a late-game comeback. To hold sole possession of the division, Oakland will need to win on the road on Thursday against a Kansas City team that beat them 26-10 on October 17 (KC -2), which was their last loss of the season. The Chiefs are 9-3 (6-5-1 ATS) and second in the division, and is coming off a thrilling 29-28 road win against the Falcons on Sunday (KC +5). Atlanta took a 28-27 lead late in the fourth quarter, but QB Matt Ryan was intercepted by S Eric Berry on the ensuing two-point conversion attempt. Berry returned the pass all the way to the opposite end zone to give Kansas City the win. Over the last 10 seasons, favorites that have won three of their last four games (KC) are 27-7 ATS against teams that have won eight or more of their last 10 games. (Oakland has won nine of its last 10). Over the same time frame, however, teams coming off of six or more consecutive Overs (OAK) are 25-6 ATS against a team coming off of one or more straight Overs. WR Jeremy Maclin and CB Phillip Gaines are questionable for the Chiefs on Thursday, and Raiders DTs Stacy McGee and Darius Latham are in the same situation.

Raiders QB Derek Carr (65.5 CMP%, 3,375 yards, 24 TDs, 5 INTs) is right in the middle of the conversation for the league MVP thanks to a breakout season in his third year in the NFL. His team’s superb record certainly helps, but his numbers are up there with the best of them: He’s fourth in passing yards, seventh in passing touchdowns and seventh with a passer rating of 100.3. Along with a couple other passers, he has thrown the fewest interceptions of any of the league’s top 15 in passing yardage. He had his lowest completion percentage of the season on Sunday afternoon (but still played well), completing 19 of 35 passes for 260 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. He threw the go-ahead touchdown pass early in the third quarter as a 37-yarder to WR Amari Cooper (68 catches, 981 yards, 4 TDs), which was one of only two catches for Cooper on the day. He leads the Raiders in receiving and is fifth in the league in receiving yards. The other half of Oakland’s dynamic WR duo, Michael Crabtree (67 catches, 785 yards, 7 TDs), caught Carr’s other touchdown pass and finished with a game-high 74 receiving yards on seven catches. He’s tied for sixth in the league in touchdown receptions this year. WR Seth Roberts (31 catches, 332 yards, 5 TDs) and TE Clive Walford (27 catches, 288 yards, 2 TDs) have been Carr’s other primary targets this season. RB Latavius Murray (140 carries, 553 yards, 11 TDs; 29 catches, 228 yards) spent much of the season as part of a platoon in the backfield, but he’s gotten 19 and 20 carries in the least two weeks, respectively. He is third in the NFL in rushing touchdowns. RB Jalen Richard (62 carries, 357 yards, TD; 27 catches, 173 yards, TD) had a season-high nine carries against the Bills. On defense, the Raiders are 29th in the league with 389.7 yards allowed per game. Mack is third in the league with 10 sacks and second with four forced fumbles.

Kansas City QB Alex Smith (67.4 CMP%, 2,567 yards, 11 TDs, 4 INTs) had arguably his best game of the season against the Falcons on Sunday, completing 21 of 25 passes for 270 yards and a touchdown. It was the most yards per attempt he has posted in a game this year, second best completion percentage and third most yards. He’s seventh in the league in completion percentage, but ranks lower in the league in other statistical categories: He’s 23rd in passing yards, 26th in passing touchdowns and 18th with a passer rating of 92.5. As is often the case in Kansas City, he doesn’t have much of a receiving corps to work with. Maclin (30 catches, 376 yards, 2 TDs), the biggest name of any of the wideouts on the team, having missed three straight games with an injury certainly doesn’t help things. A major cause for hope, though, has been the emergence of rookie wideout Tyreek Hill (50 catches, 481 yards, 5 TDs). Hill, who ran a 4.24-second 40-yard dash at the combine in the offseason, broke out in an overtime win against the Broncos two weeks ago by becoming the first rookie since 1965 to score a rushing touchdown, receiving touchdown and kick return touchdown in the same game. The Chiefs’ leading receiver is reality show star (and tight end) Travis Kelce (65 catches, 815 yards, 3 TDs), who is second (by only five yards) among all NFL tight ends in receiving. He had his best game of the season against the Falcons, reeling in eight catches for 140 yards. RB Spencer Ware (163 carries, 734 yards, 3 TDs; 27 catches, 395 yards, 2 TDs) is both Kansas City’s leading rusher and third-leading receiver. He is 14th in the league in rushing yards and has fewer carries than all but one player ahead of him. His best game of the year was Round 1 against the Raiders, as he carried the ball a season-high 24 times for a season-high 124 yards. Defensively, the Chiefs rank just above Oakland with 384.9 yards allowed per game. They’ve intercepted 14 passes as a unit, second most in the NFL.


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