Donald L. Tucker Center – Tallahassee, FL
Tip-off: Sunday, 4:00 p.m. ET
Line: N/A

#21 Florida looks to bounce back after a loss to Duke as they visit in-state rival Florida State on Sunday.

The last three games in the rivalry between the Gators and Seminoles have been decided by a combined total of five points, so expect a close battle on Sunday afternoon in Tallahassee. While Florida holds a decided 43-24 overall mark on Florida State historically, the Seminoles have won each of the past two matchups and covered the past three years. Since 1995, the Gators are 12-9 (10-11 ATS). The Seminoles are 4-2 (4-2 ATS) at home since 2005 versus the Gators, only having been the favorite once out of those six times. The total has been UNDER in four of those six games. Each of the past three games have come down to plays in the final seconds: G Dwayne Bacon hit a shot with 4.8 seconds to push the Seminoles over the Gators last season, while an “own goal” tip in, from a Florida player trying to corral a rebound, was the dramatic ending when these two teams last played in Tallahassee in 2014. Florida last won this game in 2013 after being fouled on an offensive rebound with 1.3 seconds left and hitting a free throw to seal the win. Florida State has covered these last three contests (all as underdogs of 5 points or more). The Seminoles are hot, winners of their last five games (4-1 ATS) including victories over Illinois, Minnesota and George Washington. Their lone loss was to Temple (89-86, FSU -10) on a neutral floor. The Seminoles have been favorites (of at least 7.5 points) in every one of their games this season. Florida has played a much tougher schedule than their in-state counterparts, taking losses to top 10 teams Gonzaga and most recently Duke, both on neutral floors and failing to cover in both. Florida was 10-4 (9-5 ATS) after a loss last season under Mike White. The Gators own wins over Seton Hall and Miami, covering both as very slight favorites. The availability of impact freshman F Jonathan Isaac (15.1 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 59% FG) is still in question after a hip flexor injury that has kept him out of action since Florida State’s win over Minnesota on November 28th. While Florida State is 3-0 without Isaac, their chances at continuing recent dominance over the Gators takes a hit without their potential NBA lottery pick on the floor.

The aforementioned Isaac is a matchup nightmare as a 6’10” wing that can shoot over the top of the defense and put the ball on the floor. That said, the Seminoles aren’t lost without him, as they still boast the talents of last year’s hero in this game, leading scorer Dwayne Bacon (16.6 PPG) and junior G Xavier Rathan-Mayes (9.8 PPG, 5.0 APG). They also may have caught lightning in a bottle in reserve G PJ Savoy (12.8 PPG) who’s stepped up in Isaac’s absence. It remains to be seen if Savoy’s white-hot shooting from deep (13 threes in his past two games) will carry over beyond garbage time and into prime time against a top 25 opponent. Rathan-Mayes has seen his scoring average nosedive since a freshman season that had him average almost 15 points per game, but he’s scored double figures in each of his two career games against Florida and is coming off a 16-point, seven-rebound, seven-assist outing versus Nicholls State. Bacon will shoulder even more of the scoring load if Isaac remains out, which suits him just fine (24 points last season and the game-winner against the Gators). The Seminoles are seventh in the nation in scoring offense at (90.7 PPG) but run into a solid Florida defense. The Seminoles will try and take advantage of a Florida front line that allows 11.8 offensive rebounds per game (338th NCAA), but do they have the necessary weapons to take full advantage?

Florida doesn’t have the individual offensive firepower that FSU has and the Gators do not excel from the perimeter (33.1% 3PT, 224th NCAA). That said, Florida shoots a solid 75% from the line, so making this game physical and getting the Seminoles into foul trouble will work to the visitor’s advantage. The Gators have started shooting it better as of late (15-for-30 3PT combined against North Florida and Duke) and protected the rim well against the Blue Devils (eight blocks) even in a loss. They can’t be victimized on the offensive glass as they were to Duke, though, and have to give C John Egbunu (9.1 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 2.6 BPG) more support up front. Egbunu has to stay out of foul trouble to thwart Florida State’s rim-attacking style, as he fouled out in last season’s matchup with just four points. One player who didn’t struggle against the Seminoles last December is G KeVaughn Allen (13.3 PPG). Allen poured in a career-high 32 points in defeat against the Seminoles (10-for-18 FG, 9-for-9 FT) and will most likely be a marked man for Seminoles’ coach Leonard Hamilton. F Devin Robinson (11.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG) and G Canyon Barry (11.4 PPG) round out the double-figure scorers for Coach White. Barry has struggled mightily of late (only 18 points combined in his last three games) and has seen his playing time dwindle. Robinson has conversely been a steady source of offense (8 of 9 games in double-figures), but doesn’t wow you with any one facet of his game. Senior Kasey Hill (8.2 PPG, 4.2 APG) could be an x-factor in his last game in this rivalry. Hill is coming off a 13-point, seven-rebound, six-assist performance against Duke. Hill had 17 points in 2014, the last time Florida was in Tallahassee.