Sports Authority Field – Denver, CO
Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Line: New England -3.0, Total: 43.5

The Broncos will look to improve on their positioning in the AFC wild card race with a win over the Patriots on Sunday.

The Patriots have won four straight games heading into Sunday’s matchup, and they will be eager to play this Broncos team in this one. Denver eliminated New England from the postseason a year ago, and that game was at Sports Authority Field as well. The Patriots are not ones to forget something like that, so they’ll hope to return the favor on Sunday. They are certainly getting this matchup at the right time too. New England has been excellent on both sides of the ball in recent weeks, as the team has scored 30 points in two of its past four and held its opponents to 17 or fewer in three of the past four. That is bad news for the Broncos, who only scored 10 points in Tennessee last week. If they struggled to score against that Titans defense then things are going to be even rougher this weekend. Fortunately for Denver, the team is 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS when playing New England at home since 1992 and 2-0 both SU and ATS over the past three seasons. One trend favoring the Pats in this one is that they are 9-1 ATS after gaining 300 or more passing yards in their previous game over the past two seasons. They are, however, a lousy 0-6 ATS after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games over the past three seasons.

The Patriots are really playing well heading into this weekend and QB Tom Brady (2,876 yards, 22 TD, 2 INT) had one of his best games of the season against the Ravens last week. Brady threw for 406 yards with three touchdowns and only one pick in that game, but the pick was a mistake that Brady will likely never make again. He was brilliant in the game altogether, though. He picked Baltimore apart all over the field and will be out for revenge in this game on Sunday. When he faced the Broncos in the postseason a year ago, Brady completed only 48.2% of his passes and threw for two interceptions. Look for him to be more careful with the ball this weekend. His top target in this one will likely be WR Julian Edelman (79 rec, 791 yards, 2 TD). With Gronk out for the season, Edelman has had to step it up for the Pats. That doesn’t change on Sunday, as Edelman will need to use his speed and creativity to get open over the middle of the field. WR Chris Hogan (32 rec, 613 yards, 4 TD) could also help Brady here. Hogan has been great for New England this season, and he caught a touchdown against Baltimore last week. Don’t be surprised if he finds the end zone again on Sunday.

The Broncos are struggling right now and there really couldn’t be a worse time for that. Denver is no longer a lock to make the postseason and this team badly needs a win on Sunday. A loss would almost definitely end the season for them. With that being the case, QB Trevor Siemian (2,730 yards, 16 TD, 7 INT) is going to need to play one of his better games of the season on Sunday. Siemian isn’t often asked to do much, but he is capable of really turning it on in big games. He was excellent in a loss to the Chiefs three weeks ago, throwing for 340 yards and a touchdown. He’ll likely need to put forth that type of effort in this one. That means that both WRs Emmanuel Sanders (75 rec, 958 yards, 5 TD) and Demaryius Thomas (76 rec, 925 yards, 5 TD) will need to come through with some solid performances in this game. Both are capable of putting up big numbers, and they’ll need to bring their A-games on Sunday. Defensively, the most important player in this game will be LB Von Miller (60 tackles, 13.5 sacks). Miller has the ability to really put pressure on Tom Brady in this game and he absolutely must do that. If Brady can comfortably sit in the pocket then the Patriots will blow the Broncos out.