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High-powered Warriors, Rockets meet Friday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 1/20/2017  at  10:31:00 AM
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GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (36-6)

at HOUSTON ROCKETS (33-12)

Tip-off: Friday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Golden State -4.0, Total: 237.5

The Warriors will be looking for revenge against the Rockets in one the season’s more exciting Friday night matchups.

Why would the Warriors be feeling confident heading into Friday night’s matchup? How about the fact that they have won five straight games, and the most recent three victories were by an average margin of 25.3 PPG? Two of those wins were over elite teams, as the Warriors beat the Cavaliers 126-91 as nine-point favorites on Monday and then beat the Thunder 121-100 as 14.5-point favorites on Friday. Golden State’s offense has been flawless as of late, as the team has shot 50.0% or better from the field in nine of its past 12 contests. That is rather unworldly and the Warriors will need to keep that up on Friday night. The Rockets can score with any team in the league, and they actually beat the Warriors 132-127 as 11.5-point underdogs in Golden State on Dec. 1. Houston has, however, struggled recently, losing three of its past five games. The Rockets will be hoping a win on Friday can get them back into their groove. One trend that stands out when looking at this game is that favorites coming off of two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more (Golden State) – that have won 75% or more of their games on the season – are 49-19 ATS over the past five seasons. PF David West (Thumb) is out for the next couple of weeks for Golden State, but his absence would be nothing compared to the potential loss of Rockets PF Ryan Anderson (Flu). Anderson is listed as questionable for this game, but he’ll do everything in his power to get out there.

The Warriors are known for their ability to shoot the ball, but they’ll be facing a team that enjoys the three-ball even more than them in this one. 30.0% of the Warriors’ points come from beyond the arc (7th in NBA), but 38.8% of the Rockets’ points come from threes (1st in NBA). That means that Golden State’s wings will need to be ready to play, but they should be up to the task. The Warriors have the league’s most efficient defense, allowing only 101.1 points per 100 possessions. They also are the seventh most active team in the league in closing out on opponent’s threes (23.4 contested three pointers per game). Offensively, Golden State really doesn’t have any issues at all. The Warriors have the league’s most efficient offense, as they are scoring 113.4 points per 100 possessions. A lot of that has to do with their ability to share the ball, as Golden State is averaging 31.4 APG (1st in NBA) and 74.2 PPG scored off of assists (1st in NBA). That second number is by far the best in the league, as Houston ranks second and averages only 63.2 PPG off of assists. SF Kevin Durant (26.2 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 4.7 APG, 1.7 BPG, 1.1 SPG) has been Golden State’s best player this season, leading the team in scoring and blocked shots. He had 40 points against the Thunder last game and should get up for a matchup with his old teammate, James Harden. PF Draymond Green (10.7 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 7.7 APG, 2.0 SPG, 1.4 BPG), meanwhile, leads the team in rebounds, assists and steals. He is still the heart of this Golden State squad, and he’ll need to bring a lot defensively on Friday. As for PG Steph Curry (24.6 PPG, 6.1 APG, 1.8 SPG) and SG Klay Thompson (21.2 PPG), the duo will just need to do what it does best. That is shoot the ball, as this game is going to be high scoring and the “splash brothers” will need to get hot in order to outscore the Rockets’ high-powered offense.

To say that SG James Harden (28.9 PPG, 11.6 APG, 8.3 RPG, 1.4 SPG) will need to have a big game in order for the Rockets to win on Friday is an understatement. When Houston beat Golden State in December, Harden had 29 points, 15 rebounds, 13 assists, two steals and a block. One of the reasons Harden can be so successful against the Warriors is that he is one of the best finishers in basketball and Golden State lacks elite rim protection. Harden is averaging 8.1 drive points per game (5th in NBA) and he averages 1.5 APG off the drive as well (t-2nd in NBA). The Rockets will feature the Harden pick-and-roll as often as it can in this one, and his success there will ultimately decide whether or not the Rockets can beat this elite Warriors team again. SG Eric Gordon (17.8 PPG) will be the beneficiary of a lot of Harden’s passes, and he lit up the Warriors for 23 points and five assists the last time these teams met. Gordon has been an absolute sniper this season, hitting 2.6 of his 6.6 catch-and-shoot three-point opportunities per game. He doesn’t create much for himself, but head coach Mike D’Antoni’s offense gets him a ton of open looks. He’ll surely bury some of those, as he is hitting a ridiculous 45.1% of his 9.8 threes attempted per game when playing at home this season. PF Ryan Anderson (14.0 PPG, 5.2 RPG), if healthy, will also provide some outside shooting. Anderson is burying 40.3% of his triples on the year and had 29 points the last time he faced Golden State. Two other guys that must be mentioned are PG Patrick Beverley (9.3 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 4.4 APG, 1.6 SPG) and C Clint Capela (11.2 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 1.6 BPG). On a team that is recognized for being an offensive juggernaut, Beverley and Capela are two guys that pride themselves on defense. Beverley will do whatever he can to throw Curry off his game in this one, but Capela is the x-factor. If he does not defend the rim at a high level then the Rockets will have a very hard time slowing down the Warriors.


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