StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

Marquette looks to upset #1 Villanova Tuesday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 1/23/2017  at  8:30:00 PM
  Print This Article    

VILLANOVA WILDCATS (19-1)

at MARQUETTE GOLDEN EAGLES (13-6)

BMO Harris Bradley Center – Milwaukee, WI
Tip-off: Tuesday, 8:00 pm ET
Line: Villanova -5.5, Total: N/A

#1 Villanova will be on upset alert when the team takes on Marquette at the BMO Harris Bradley Center on Tuesday.

There has been absolutely no championship hangover for Villanova this season, as the Wildcats have won 19 of their first 20 games. They have been rather dominant in those wins as well, covering in 11 of their 18 lined games thus far. The situation on Tuesday night suits them well, as they have covered in three of their five games as a road favorite on the season (3-1-1 ATS). Marquette, however, is an impressive 10-1 SU (6-5 ATS) when playing at home this season. The Golden Eagles should also be flying high off of a 102-94 road victory over Creighton last game. Still, beating a team like Villanova is not going to be an easy task for Marquette. The Wildcats have dominated this head-to-head series recently, going 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in the past nine meetings between these teams. Villanova also happens to be 5-1 ATS when coming off of an ATS loss on the season. Marquette, meanwhile, is 0-1 both SU and ATS when playing as a home underdog on the season. That is not necessarily a good sign when going up against the best team in college basketball.

Villanova is one of the most efficient teams in the country on both sides of the floor, as the Wildcats are scoring 123.1 points per 100 possessions (3rd in NCAA) and allowing only 92.7 points per 100 possessions (17th in NCAA). The most important player on this team is G Josh Hart (19.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.5 SPG). Hart is a guy that seemingly makes the right play every time he has the ball, and he is capable of beating his opponents from the outside and at the basket. He has had some ridiculous games from the charity stripe this season, as well, as he gotten to the line 10 or more times twice. That means that Hart knows how to draw fouls and he will certainly look to get himself some easy points on Tuesday. F Kris Jenkins (14.3 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 1.2 SPG) and G Jalen Brunson (13.9 PPG, 4.3 APG) are Hart’s two biggest sources of help. Jenkins is known best for hitting a game-winner in the championship game last year. He has, however, returned and provided a very good two-way presence for the Wildcats this season. Jenkins is a unique player in that he is both quick and strong enough to guard either guards or forwards. He is also a good three-point shooter, making him something like a college version of Draymond Green. He does, however, lack the court vision that Draymond has. Brunson, meanwhile, has seen a major increase in his role from a year ago. He is the floor general for this Villanova team and will need to be on his game on Tuesday. If he does not play well then it’s tough to imagine the Wildcats winning this one in a hostile environment.

Marquette might not play the same brand of efficient basketball that Villanova does, but the team is very good offensively. The Golden Eagles are averaging 84.6 PPG this season (18th in NCAA) and they’ll look to speed up the pace in this one a bit. Two places where Marquette might be able to beat Villanova in this one are at the point guard and center spots. G Markus Howard (12.8 PPG, 1.0 SPG) is one of the more talented point guards in the Big East this season, and he should be able to have some success against Brunson on Tuesday. Howard is faster than Brunson, and he is also a very good outside shooter (50.6% 3PT). If he is aggressive in this one then the Golden Eagles just might be able to pull off this upset. C Luke Fischer (11.7 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.4 BPG), meanwhile, is going to be the best big man on the court on Tuesday. Fischer is extremely tough to stop around the basket, and he just had 18 points, eight boards and six blocks in the win over Creighton on Saturday. He will, however, need to make sure that he stays out of foul trouble, as he has fouled out of two of the past four contests. If that happens again on Tuesday then it’s very unlikely that Marquette will be able to pick up what could be the team’s signature win under head coach Steve Wojciechowski.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: