Mackey Arena – West Lafayette, IN
Tip-off: Saturday, 4:00pm ET
Line: N/A

#16 Purdue aims for a fifth straight Big Ten win and a season sweep of Michigan State when the team host the Spartans on Saturday afternoon.

The Boilermakers (15-7-1 ATS) will be looking to keep pace atop the Big Ten standings with Wisconsin and Maryland. Going for a sixth win in a row, Purdue has the advantage of the friendly confines at Mackey Arena (13-2, 9-3 ATS at home this season). The Boilermakers are 6-1 (6-1 ATS) at home in Big Ten play as they come off a home win on Tuesday night over Rutgers (74-55, PUR -17.5). Coach Tom Izzo’s Spartans find themselves starting to separate themselves from the middle of the Big Ten with four wins in their last five games. Michigan State has eyes on an NCAA bid, something that didn’t seem so realistic after the Spartans lost to Purdue in their first meeting on Jan. 24 (84-73, MSU +1.5), which dropped Michigan State to 12-9 on the season (at the time). The Spartans come off a 74-66 (MSU -6) home win over Ohio State on Tuesday. On the road this season, Michigan State is 2-4 (3-3 ATS). Purdue is 6-1-1 ATS over their past eight games, while in total trends, the Under is 4-0 in the Boilermakers’ last four. Michigan State is 4-1 ATS (13-12 ATS on the season) in its last five games, while the Under is 4-1 in that same stretch. That said, it’s worth noting that the Over is 5-1 in Michigan State’s six road games to date. Michigan State has dominated the Boilermakers (8-2) over the past ten meetings that date back to March, 2011. That said, Purdue has taken two of the last three (including this January). The Boilermakers are also 3-1 ATS over their past four games against the Spartans. A dominant trend in this matchup has been the total, as Over is 8-1 the past nine times the Spartans and Boilermakers have gone at it.

The Spartans have gone on a run by getting back to their defensive roots under Coach Izzo. While the season defensive numbers are satisfactory (68.5 PPG allowed, 69th in NCAA; 40.4% FG, 29th in NCAA), they’re nothing to write home about given Coach Izzo’s history churning out elite defensive teams. In their last four wins, the Spartans have tightened to allow just 63.8 PPG, and held three of those four victims to under 28% FG. Meanwhile, Michigan State’s offense continues to quietly be consistently efficient, if not explosive. The Spartans rarely go ice-cold from the field, shooting it better than 42% FG in all of their Big Ten games except one. Even including a stretch losing four out of five, Michigan State has shot 48% FG or better in seven of their last eight contests. If the Spartans are to have a shot against Purdue on Saturday, however, two things are going to have to happen: 1) Michigan State needs someone other than Miles Bridges (16.2 PPG, 8.4 RPG) to step up. Bridges had 33 of the Spartans’ 73 points in the first meeting. 2) Someone is going to have to get in the way of Purdue star F Caleb Swanigan (25 pts, 17 reb last meeting). While Michigan State shot 51.5% FG in their first meeting with the Boilermakers, it was the Bridges show, as the fabulous freshman went 12-for-17 (5-of-8 3PT). In a hostile environment on Saturday, they can’t expect that type of singular performance from anyone. Bruising F Nick Ward (13.2 PPG, 5.9 RPG) seems to finally be assimilating to an explosive, limited-minutes role as an inside compliment to Bridges’ all-around skills. Ward has five double-figure games in a row in just 18.4 MPG. Also keep an eye out for Alvin Ellis III (6.5 PPG, 42.7% 3PT) as the senior is coming off an 18-point performance (6-for-9 3PT) in the win over Ohio State.

Purdue must be feeling good about itself in the midst of a five game run, about to host a team it has already beaten on the road (in an effort that wasn’t their defensive best). The Boilermakers’ stingy defense (66.2 PPG, 45th in NCAA) let Miles Bridges score from anywhere he wanted in the first meeting, and you can be sure that Coach Painter is going to make Bridges a marked man in the rematch. That said, the marked man whenever he steps on the court for Purdue is Caleb Swanigan. One of the favorites for the Wooden Award this season, Swanigan (18.7 PPG, 13 RPG) ranks second in the nation in rebounding and leads the country in double-doubles with 22. When Swanigan takes the floor against Coach Izzo’s the Spartans (and their fans), there’s always a little extra, as Swanigan was a Michigan State commit as a McDonald’s All-American out of Indianapolis. Swanigan reneged on his verbal commitment at the last minute, choosing to switch to being a future Boilermaker on national signing day. Swanigan was doused with boos in East Lansing when the two teams met earlier this season, before getting the last laugh with a monster performance and the win. Purdue, though, has surrounded their star power forward with perfect role players, which speaks to their assist numbers (18.8 APG, 2nd in NCAA) and efficiency from three-point range (41.3% 3PT, 7th in NCAA). If you double-team Swanigan in the post, he’s a capable passer (2.7 APG) and his supporting cast will make you pay (Purdue was 11-for-21 from three against Michigan State in the January win). The Boilermakers put five other players (besides Swanigan) in double-figures against Michigan State in their first meeting, and C Isaac Haas (13.2 PPG) gives Coach Painter a unique high-low option as a seven-footer to pair with Swanigan. Vince Edwards (11.7 PPG, 44% 3PT) and Dakota Mathias (9.9 PPG, 49% 3PT) give the Boilermakers elite options beyond the arc to counteract Haas and Swanigan. Six-foot freshman guard Carsen Edwards (10.9 PPG) has also been an assertive offensive weapon as of late, scoring nine or more points in eight straight games while seeing his minutes and role offense increase as the season progresses.