NCAA Tournament
South Regional Finals – Elite Eight – FexExForum, Memphis, TN
Tip-off: Sunday, 5:05 pm ET
Line: North Carolina -2.5, Total: 158.0

A spot in the Final Four will be on the line when Kentucky faces North Carolina on Sunday.

The Wildcats are coming off of a ridiculously impressive performance in the Sweet 16, as Kentucky beat UCLA 86-75 as a 1.5-point underdog. The Wildcats turned the ball over six times in that game, which is a very nice mark for a team with so much youth in the starting lineup. Kentucky is scorching hot coming into this one as well. The Wildcats have won 14 straight games, but they are facing a Tar Heels team that has been excellent all year. North Carolina faced Butler in the Sweet 16, and the Tar Heels won that one 92-80 as a seven-point favorite. They have now shot 50.0% or better from the floor in two of their past three games, and they’ll need to be ready to score efficiently on Sunday. These teams met in December, and the Wildcats won that game 103-100 as one-point favorites. The teams combined to shoot 19-for-35 from the outside in that game, and a lot of offense should be expected on Sunday. One trend that stands out when looking at this game is the fact that North Carolina is 8-0 ATS after allowing 80 points or more this season. The Tar Heels are also up against a Wildcats team that is just 1-7 ATS away from home after covering.

The last time Kentucky faced North Carolina was in December and G Malik Monk (20.1 PPG, 1.0 SPG) had 47 points on 18-for-28 shooting from the floor and 8-for-12 shooting from three. North Carolina had absolutely no answer from Monk, and the freshman is going to need to be very aggressive on Sunday. Fortunately for Kentucky, Monk is coming off of his best performance in the tournament thus far. He had 21 points against UCLA and it’ll take a number like that for his team to win this one. It’d also help if both G De’Aaron Fox (16.8 PPG, 4.6 APG, 4.0 RPG) and C Edrice Adebayo (13.0 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 1.5 BPG) can play to their fullest capabilities on Sunday. Fox is coming off of the game of his life, scoring 39 points with four assists against UCLA on Friday. The Wildcats don’t need him to do just that, but they would certainly sign up for the 24 points and 10 assists he had against North Carolina in December. Kentucky will, however, need more from Adebayo in this one. He fouled out of that game and played only 19 minutes. The Wildcats need him on the court, and they also need him to really crash the glass.

North Carolina is one win away from heading back to the Final Four and this team is more desperate for a championship than any right now. The Tar Heels lost last year’s title game on a buzzer beater, and that has only made them hungrier this season. F Justin Jackson (18.2 PPG, 4.7 RPG) is the guy that leads this team, and he has been tremendous all year. He had 24 points, five boards and five assists against Butler last game, and the Tar Heels can use another performance like that on Sunday. Jackson was on fire against Kentucky in the December game, scoring 34 points on 10-for-17 shooting from the floor. His ability to shoot the ball and attack the basket makes him a tough cover for the Wildcats. North Carolina will also need both G Joel Berry II (14.7 PPG, 1.4 SPG) and Kennedy Meeks (12.5 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 1.1 BPG) to play well in this one. Berry II finally broke out with a big game against Butler on Friday. He had 26 points on 8-for-13 shooting from the floor in that one, and he badly needed that. Berry II had just 13 points total in the previous two games, so it’s big he got back on track. Meeks, meanwhile, is an elite offensive rebounder. He should be able to really affect this game on Sunday, as he is not going to make anything easy for the Kentucky bigs inside.