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Oregon faces UNC in Final Four on Saturday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 4/1/2017  at  6:47:00 AM
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OREGON DUCKS (33-5)

vs. NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (31-7)

NCAA Tournament
Final Four - University of Phoenix Stadium - Glendale, AZ
Tip-off: Saturday, 8:45 pm ET
Line: North Carolina -4.5, Total: 151.5

The Tar Heels will be looking to get back to the Championship Game with a win over the Ducks on Saturday.

Oregon shocked the world by defeating Kansas 74-60 as a 6.5-point underdog in the Elite Eight. The crowd was pretty much entirely pro-Jayhawks, so the Ducks also won in an extremely hostile environment. Oregon shot 50.9% from the floor in that win, and the team also held Kansas to 35.0% shooting as well. The Ducks have now won-and-covered in three of their four tournament victories, and they’ll certainly be feeling confident about their chances to defeat the Tar Heels in this one. North Carolina, meanwhile, could be the hungriest team in the country. After losing on a buzzer beater in last year’s Championship Game, the Tar Heels are not ready to lose before getting another chance to win it all. They defeated Kentucky on a game winning shot with under one second remaining on Sunday, winning 75-73 as two-point favorites. They did, however, turn the ball over 16 times in that game, and they’ll need to be a lot more careful on Saturday. One trend that favors Oregon in this game is the fact that the Ducks are 10-2 ATS after five straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers this season. Avoiding mistakes would be huge for the Ducks, especially if they can force the Tar Heels to commit as many turnovers as they did against Kentucky. It’s not all bad for North Carolina, though. The Tar Heels are going up against an Oregon team that is just 2-10 ATS in a neutral court game where the total is between 150 and 154.5 since 1997, and this total certainly fits into that range.

Oregon’s offense might be what everybody knows about, but this team was actually good on both ends of the floor this season. The Ducks scored 118.6 points per 100 possessions on the season (16th in NCAA), but they also allowed just 93.7 (19th in NCAA). That balance will be big on Saturday, as Oregon does not want to simply get into a track meet with North Carolina. They’ll need to find ways to get some big stops, and F Jordan Bell (10.9 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 2.2 BPG, 1.3 SPG) is the guy that could get those for them. Bell was a monster against Kansas, finishing with 11 points, 13 rebounds and eight blocks in 34 minutes of action. He has grabbed double digits in rebounds in six straight games, and he’ll need to be a monster again on Saturday. Offensively, both Gs Dillon Brooks (16.3 PPG, 1.1 SPG) and Tyler Dorsey (14.5 PPG, 3.4 RPG) will need to show up for the Ducks. Brooks struggled with his shot against Kansas, going just 7-for-18 from the floor in 37 minutes of action. He is now just 19-for-51 from the floor in the past three games, and the Ducks need him to be more efficient moving forward. Dorsey, meanwhile, is as hot as could be coming into this game. He’s averaging 24.5 PPG through four tournament games, and he’s also hitting a ridiculous 65.4% of his threes in that span. If he can keep up the hot shooting then the Ducks might just upset the Tar Heels here.

The Tar Heels are coming off of one of the most exciting games in the tournament thus far, as F Luke Maye (5.8 PPG, 4.0 RPG) hit a jumper to lift North Carolina over Kentucky with less than a second to go. Over the past two games, Maye is averaging 16.5 PPG and 7.5 RPG in 22.5 MPG. He has earned the right to play more minutes, and he should see another chance against Oregon in this one. F Justin Jackson (18.2 PPG, 4.7 RPG) did, however, struggle a bit in that one. He was just 7-for-17 from the floor and 1-for-5 from three against Kentucky on Sunday, and the Tar Heels need him to be a little more efficient moving forward. Fortunately for North Carolina, Jackson knows what he needs to do. He is one of the leaders of this team, and he badly wants to change the ending from last year’s title game. Both G Joel Berry II (14.6 PPG, 3.6 APG, 1.4 SPG) and C Kennedy Meeks (12.3 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 1.2 BPG) will be right there with Jackson in that feeling. The two of them were big parts of that team last year and will be hoping to do everything they can against Oregon in order to get back to the title game. Meeks is a guy to really keep an eye in this one, though. He was a monster against Kentucky on Sunday, finishing with seven points, 17 rebounds, four blocks and a steal in 32 minutes of action. If he can win his matchup with Jordan Bell then North Carolina should move on.


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