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UNC, Gonzaga play for championship Monday
By: Staff Writer - StatFox
Published: 4/2/2017  at  7:42:00 PM
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NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (32-7)

vs. GONZAGA BULLDOGS (37-1)

NCAA Tournament
Championship – University of Phoenix Stadium - Glendale, AZ
Tip-off: Monday, 9:20 pm ET
Line: North Carolina -1.5, Total: 153.5

North Carolina and Gonzaga battle it out for the National Championship on Monday.

North Carolina might never be able to get over a buzzer beating loss to Villanova in last year’s championship, but a win on Monday would certainly help. The Tar Heels have yet another shot to win it all, and that’s pretty impressive after making it to the finals last year. North Carolina will be the more battle-tested team in this one, as the Tar Heels have had a tougher road to this point. The best-seeded team that Gonzaga faced in this tournament was #4 West Virginia, but North Carolina defeated both #2 Kentucky and #3 Oregon. The Tar Heels won those games by a total of three points, so they’ll also know what it’s like to really squeeze victories out. Gonzaga, meanwhile, has won each of its past two games by an average of 14.0 PPG. It is, however, unfair to blame the Bulldogs for not playing closer games. They’re as talented a team as North Carolina has faced this season, and the team will be ready to go in this one. One trend that favors the Tar Heels in this game is the fact that the Bulldogs are just 13-28 ATS away from home after two straight games forcing an opponent to commit 11 or fewer turnovers since 1997. Gonzaga is, however, 12-3 ATS over the past two seasons after scoring 45 points or more in the first half of its previous game.

North Carolina has been one of the most balanced teams in the country all season, as this team was seventh in the nation in offensive efficiency (120.9 points per 100 possessions) and 16th in defensive efficiency (93.2 points per 100 possessions). That two-way effort is something that will need to be there on Monday, and guys like G Joel Berry II (14.5 PPG, 3.6 APG, 1.4 SPG), F Justin Jackson (18.3 PPG, 4.7 RPG), and C Kennedy Meeks (12.7 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 1.2 BPG) will need to lead the way. All three guys were big parts of the team that lost last year, and they can all make sure that the ending is changed in this one. Berry II has been playing on injured ankles in this tournament, but he still hit some big shots to beat Oregon on Saturday. He’ll need to do the same on Monday, and he’ll also need to continue to run this offense efficiently. Jackson is also going to be counted on. He has been the team’s best player all season, and he is coming off of a 22-point performance against the Ducks. If Jackson can hit the 20-point mark then his team will be in good shape in this one. He’ll also need to do his best to keep the Gonzaga wings from getting to the basket. Meeks, meanwhile, was the hero against Oregon. He had 25 points and 14 boards in that game, and his offensive rebounding has been insane in this tournament. He’ll look to give the Tar Heels extra opportunities against the Bulldogs on Monday, but he’ll need to avoid foul trouble against guys like Karnowski and Collins. Three other guys that could come out and play well for the Tar Heels are F Isaiah Hicks (11.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG), G Theo Pinson (6.1 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 3.8 APG) and F Luke Maye (5.7 PPG, 4.0 RPG). All three have had big games at times this season, and they’ll need to do their part when on the court in this one.

Gonzaga is going for the first championship in school history, and the Bulldogs will be confident in their ability to pull it off. Like North Carolina, this Gonzaga team is very balanced. On the year, the Bulldogs scored 119.3 points per 100 possessions (12th in NCAA) and allowed just 86.6 (1st in NCAA). They’ll need to bring that defensive intensity on Monday or they could get blown out in this championship game. The Bulldogs’ ability to execute offensively will hinge upon whether or not they can get their bigs going. Both C Przemek Karnowski (12.3 PPG, 5.8 RPG), F Johnathan Williams (10.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG) and C Zach Collins (10.0 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 1.7 BPG) will be the guys that must go to work inside. Karnowski is one of the biggest players in college basketball and nobody on UNC can stop him from a physical standpoint. He’ll get plenty of chances to score in the paint, but he’s going to need to really work hard on the defensive end. If he and Collins can’t keep the Tar Heels off the glass then this game could get out of hand. Collins will, however, be extremely confident coming into this one, as he had 14 points, 13 rebounds and six blocks in the win over South Carolina last game. As for the perimeter players, the Bulldogs have the talent to match the Tar Heels there as well. G Nigel Williams-Goss (16.9 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 4.7 APG, 1.7 SPG) is one of the most athletic point guards in the nation, and he’s going to torch Berry II if the North Carolina guard isn’t healthy. The Bulldogs also have guys like Jordan Mathews (10.8 PPG) and Josh Perkins (8.0 PPG), and both players can really shoot the basketball. If either of them can get hot then it would make the Gonzaga big men even tougher to cover, as the Tar Heels won’t be able to double any of them.


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