Tip-off: Tuesday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: Golden State -14, Total: 209.5

How much of a challenge can a Kawhi-less Spurs team give the Warriors in Game 2 on Tuesday?

Underdogs or not, the first 28 minutes couldn’t have gone better for the San Antonio Spurs in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals against the Golden State Warriors. After SF Kawhi Leonard hit two free throws with 7:54 remaining in the third quarter, the Spurs had staked out a 78-55 lead over the 9.5-point favorite Warriors. Leonard left the game immediately thereafter, though, hobbling on an already-injured ankle that appeared to be significantly worsened by the questionable play of Golden State C Zaza Pachulia. From there, the Warriors went on an 18-0 run to cut the lead to five, and it’s hard to believe that it coming in Leonard’s absence is a mere coincidence. The Spurs had the lead back up to nine by the end of the third, but the Warriors won the fourth quarter by 11 points to win 113-111. Now, with their star player considered doubtful to play in Game 2 on Tuesday night, San Antonio becomes an even bigger underdog against perhaps the most stacked basketball roster of all time. Since 1996, teams outscoring their opponents by 9+ PPG (GSW) are 15-46 ATS as favorites of at least 10 points on Tuesday nights. Over the last five seasons, games in which both teams are outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG and in which at least one of the two teams are coming off a game with a combined score of at least 205 are 53-16 Under against the total. An MRI on the left knee of Golden State SF Andre Iguodala revealed no structural damage, but he is questionable for Tuesday night.

Leonard (27.7 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 4.6 APG, 1.7 SPG; all player stats are for playoffs) was an absolutely beast before going down in Game 1, scoring 26 points on 7-of-13 shooting (11-11 FT), pulling down eight rebounds—four offensive—and handing out three assists. Put simply, the Spurs have no chance in a series against the Warriors without him. With Game 3 not scheduled until Saturday, though, sitting out on Tuesday would give Leonard five full days off since Pachulia’s dirty play, and one hopes that would be enough recovery to bring him back to full health. Until then, though, a series of wing players will have to step up in his place. SGs Jonathon Simmons (9.1 PPG) and Manu Ginobili (5.2 PPG) each played 26 minutes in Game 1, with Simmons scoring 12 and Ginobili scoring 17 to go with three steals. Ginobili has shown a remarkable resurgence in his last few games, and he’ll need to somehow elevate his game even further to make up for Leonard’s absence. PF LaMarcus Aldridge (17.7 PPG, 7.9 RPG) has also been great recently after a quiet start to the postseason. He had 34 points in Game 6 against Houston last round and put up 28 to go with seven rebounds and three steals in Game 1 against Golden State. If this Warriors defense has any weakness, it’s on the interior—and Aldridge is really the only one who can potentially exploit it. PG Patty Mills (10.7 PPG) and SG Danny Green (7.9 PPG, 1.0 BPG) need to do better than 13 combined points, which was their output in Game 1.

Warriors PG Stephen Curry (28.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 5.7 APG, 1.6 SPG) was at his most electrifying in Game 1, scoring 40 points on 14-of-26 shooting in 39 minutes. He threw up 16 threes and made seven of them. After a disappointing 2016 playoffs in which he dealt with various injuries, it’s good to see Curry dominating at full health this year. It’s good to see SF Kevin Durant (24.9 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 3.7 APG, 1.3 BPG) healthy, too, as he missed two games in the first round against Portland. He had a team-best plus/minus of +14 in Game 1, scoring 34 points and blocking four shots in the process. Leonard is one of the few players in the league who is capable of effectively guarding Durant, and he was certainly the only Spur capable of doing so. If he doesn’t have to worry about guarding Leonard, maybe things will start to open up for SG Klay Thompson (15.0 PPG, 1.3 SPG), who was invisible in Game 1 with six points on 2-of-11 shooting. After a star turn in last year’s WCFs, he has taken a definitive backseat to Durant. PF Draymond Green (14.2 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 7.2 APG, 2.0 SPG, 2.3 BPG) was quieter than normal with nine points, seven rebounds and seven assists. Iguodala (7.0 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 3.3 APG) is easily the Warriors’ most underappreciated player, and if an absence extends into next round it will most certainly be noticed.