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Red-hot Pirates face Rockies on Friday night
By: Staff Writer - StatFox
Published: 7/21/2017  at  10:53:00 AM
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PITTSBURGH PIRATES (48-48)

at COLORADO ROCKIES (56-41)

First pitch: Friday, 8:40 p.m. ET
Line: Pittsburgh +130, Colorado -140, Total: 11.5

The Pirates will be hoping to get over .500 with a win over the Rockies in Colorado on Friday.

There have been ongoing debates about whether or not this Pittsburgh team should sell at the trade deadline, but those should vanish rather soon. The Pirates have been on a roll lately, as they have won five straight and eight of their past nine. They are very much in the race for the NL Central, as they are only three games behind the Brewers right now. They just need to find a way to keep playing the way they have been. The Rockies, meanwhile, have won six of their past 10. This team has not slowed down after a fast start to the season, and Colorado is likely looking at a spot in the NL Wild Card Game. The division, however, is probably out of reach. The Rockies are 10.5 games behind the Dodgers, who just don’t seem to lose anymore. Colorado does, however, have plenty to play for. This team would love to be at home in the Wild Card Game, but it’s also no guarantee that the Rockies are in that game. They have to keep winning games, so this one on Friday night is going to be very important. The starters in this matchup are set to be RHP Trevor Williams (3-4, 4.57 ERA, 59 K) for the Pirates and RHP Jeff Hoffman (6-1, 4.33 ERA< 53 K) for the Rockies. Neither are anything too special, so don’t be surprised if this game is very high scoring. One trend that really stands out when looking at this game is that good offensive teams (Colorado - 4.7 or more runs per game) are 79-32 against the money line since 1997 when going against an average National League starting pitcher (ERA – 4.20 to 5.20) after a game where they had 17 or more hits.

The Pirates are rolling right now and it’s important that they keep it going. They have a real chance to take control of their division in the next few weeks, but this series against the Rockies is going to be tough. Pittsburgh is going to need a good performance from Trevor Williams in this one, and the righty has actually been solid as of late. Williams has pitched at least six innings in three of his past five starts, and he has allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his past six as well. If he can throw a quality start for Pittsburgh on Friday then the team will have a great chance to win. That just is easier said than done against a potent Rockies offense, though. As for the Pirates, there’s a good chance they’ll need to put up a bunch of runs in this game. That means that guys like OFs Andrew McCutchen (.288 BA, 17 HR, 53 RBI) and Gregory Polanco (.268, 9 HR, 28 RBI) could really help their team by coming through in this one. Both guys are a lot better than their numbers indicate, but McCutchen has really come on strong since an awful start to the season. He is only hitting .288 on the season, but he has been one of the best hitters in baseball over the past few months.

Jeff Hoffman has allowed four runs in each of his past two starts, which is a number that could put Colorado in jeopardy of losing this game on Friday. The Rockies really would love for him to allow three or fewer runs in this game, but that’s not very likely. Hoffman has a 6.44 ERA in five home starts this season. His issue in Colorado has, however, been walks and not homers. He has walked 12 batters at home this season, and that is something that should be correctable. If Hoffman’s control is a bit better in this game then the Rockies will be very pleased. On offense, 3B Nolan Arenado (.309 BA, 21 HR, 80 RBI) will do his best to stay hot for Colorado. Arenado was a beast last game, going 5-for-6 with three homers and seven RBI in an 18-4 victory over the Padres. He now has homers in four of the past seven games, and he has had two or more hits in five of the past 10. As always, OF Charlie Blackmon (.329 BA, 23 HR, 67 RBI) should also be a major threat for Colorado. Blackmon enters this one on a 14-game hitting streak, and he has homered in three of his past four games as well. Blackmon has, however, been dealing with some leg pain. He should be able to go in this one, but it’ll be interesting to see whether or not he is playing at 100%.


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