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Cotton Bowl - Dec. 29
By: Sam Chase - StatFox
Published: 12/18/2017  at  4:39:00 PM
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USC TROJANS (11-2)
at OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (11-2)

Cotton Bowl Stadium – Dallas, TX
Kickoff: Friday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line: Ohio State -7, Total: 64.5

Can Urban Meyer motivate his disappointed Buckeyes squad when Ohio State takes on USC?

Many Ohio State fans held out hope that the Buckeyes would earn yet another College Football Playoff berth this season with a win over undefeated Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship. And perhaps that would have been the case if OSU had managed something more impressive than the 27-21 victory they earned, or perhaps it was foolish to ever think a two-loss Big Ten team would get in over one-loss Alabama. Regardless, Ohio State's in the Cotton Bowl, and they'll find a worthy opponent in the Pac-12-winning USC Trojans. A few things go differently in a close September loss to Washington State, and USC would likely be in the playoffs. But even at 11-2, the Trojans were conference champions with a 31-28 win over Stanford, their second victory over the Cardinal this year. Over the last three seasons, USC is 1-9 ATS in non-home games against teams with winning percentages of .750 or better. Since 1992, Ohio State is 52-23 ATS against teams averaging at least 4.75 yards per carry.

J.T. Barrett's time at Ohio State will finally come to an end after the Cotton Bowl, and it will have been an overwhelmingly successful era for both Barrett and the team. He was excellent in almost every game this season, with losses to Oklahoma and Iowa standing out as exceptions. He showed remarkable toughness late in the year, returning from arthroscopic knee surgery to play the entire Big Ten title game against Wisconsin. He struggled, completing less than 50% of his passes and throwing two interceptions—including a pick-six—but managed to make just enough plays against arguably the best defense in the country. He had 60 rushing yards, and the threat of him leaving the pocket goes a long way to opening up room for his cast of playmakers. It's a big and impressive cast, with freshman RB J.K. Dobbins as the headliner. He'll likely have 1,400 rushing yards on the season by the time the Cotton Bowl is over. He has seven touchdowns on the ground, while Barrett and "veteran" (sophomore) RB Mike Weber each have 10. WR K.J. Hill is Barrett's most reliable target, easily leading the team with 55 receptions on the season. The other members of the receiving unit are less consistent, but are good for a couple huge plays per game between them. Such was the case against Wisconsin, when WR Terry McLaurin got an 84-yard strike down the seam for the game-opening touchdown, and WR Parris Campbell took a screen pass 57 yards for a score later in the first quarter.

Unless he pulls a Matt Barkley, USC QB Sam Darnold is headed for the NFL Draft after this bowl game. While still a great season on the whole, his 2017 hasn't been as stellar as his 2016—lower completion percentage, fewer touchdowns, more interceptions, more sacks. He sure has enjoyed playing Stanford, though. In two high-stakes games against the Cardinal this year, he threw for 641 yards and six touchdowns. It was his Rose Bowl performance against Penn State on New Year's Day a year ago that put his name in the conversation for No. 1 overall draft pick status, and he'll be hoping for a repeat performance against a Big Ten foe this season. He has one of college football's best wideouts in his arsenal, that being WR Deontay Burnett. While he's failed to have an 80-yard game since mid-October—and had a season-low one catch for nine yards in the conference title game—he'll be a big part of OSU's game planning. WRs Tyler Vaughns and Steven Mitchell Jr. are also threats for big plays. But the best player in the offense is really RB Ronald Jones II, who has been criminally overlooked all season due to a combination of factors that includes the Darnold hype and college football's East Coast bias. His 1,486 rushing yards are eighth in the entire country and his 18 touchdowns are fifth, despite the fact that he missed a game. And he's only gotten better as the year has gone on, running for 120 yards in five straight games now. He tends to get a ton of carries, so a few weeks off after the Trojans' last game ought to have him in even better form than usual. Ohio State loaded the box to successfully stop star Wisconsin back Jonathan Taylor, but won't have the same luxury against Jones and USC given Darnold's abilities as a passer.


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