Odds to win AFC East
New England -800
New York Jets +1000
Why not make it 10 division titles in a row for the Patriots? After all, Tom Brady has shown no signs of slowing down in his 40s, and there isn’t much resistance from the rest of the AFC East. The Dolphins get Ryan Tannehill back, but lost some talent as they try to reset the culture under Adam Gase. Meanwhile, the Bills, a wild-card team a year ago, are poised to slide back after a year filled with fortunate turnovers and maximized efficiency, even if the roster is better. The Jets are creeping closer, and might have their QB of the future, but offensive line and wide receivers remain big question marks.
Pick to win AFC East: New England
Best AFC East Value: New York Jets +1000
Odds to win AFC North
While the defense remains a question mark since the tragic injury to Ryan Shazier, the Steelers have enough firepower to run away with the AFC North again. Though the Bengals, fresh off back-to-back spoiler victories against playoff hopefuls to finish 2017, might be ready to turn a corner. The Ravens are hoping an offensive makeover will push them back into AFC title contention, while the Browns have loaded up on young talent, but still have to prove they know how to use it.
Pick to win AFC North: Pittsburgh
Best AFC North Value: Cincinnati +900
Odds to win AFC South
Once a laughing stock, the AFC South is suddenly one of the best divisions in football. The Jaguars should be able to ride an elite defense and enough offense back to the top of the division, but if Deshaun Watson and the defense is healthy, the Texans can match up with anyone on paper. Tennessee has assembled an impressive group on defense, but it’s Marcus Mariota who will make or break their season. And Indianapolis gets Andrew Luck back in the lineup, but he’s not going to help the league’s least talented defense tackle anyone.
Pick to win AFC South: Jacksonville
Best AFC South Value: Tennessee +400
Odds to win AFC West
Los Angeles Chargers +180
Kansas City +320
The Rams have dominated headlines in L.A., but the Chargers might be just as talented. Philip Rivers is still a franchise QB, and they have star pairings at edge rusher and cornerback. Patrick Mahomes steps in for the Chiefs, who are hoping his big arm and aggressive approach mesh with a talented supporting cast. Jon Gruden takes over a disappointing Raiders team that needs Derek Carr to play like he did in 2016. And the Broncos still have the defense, but can they score enough points to move back into the playoff picture?
Pick to win AFC West: Los Angeles Chargers
Best AFC West Value: Kansas City +320
Odds to win NFC East
New York Giants +700
The champs still have everything in place, and they bring back Carson Wentz for another run at MVP. Dallas is suddenly full of question marks in the passing game; how far can that vaunted run game and a reinforced defense carry them in 2018? The Giants got a new dimension to their offense with Saquon Barkley and get Odell Beckham Jr. back in the lineup. Perhaps more importantly, they cut all-time loser Brandon Marshall, whose mere presence has proven over the years to prevent teams from reaching the playoffs. The pass rush must re-emerge though. And Washington turns things over to Alex Smith, who will not have nearly the talent he worked with in Kansas City.
Pick to win NFC East: Philadelphia
Best NFC East Value: New York Giants +700
Odds to win NFC North
Green Bay +125
The return or Aaron Rodgers makes things interesting in this division, but a rebuilt secondary could push the Packers over the top. The pressure is on Kirk Cousins to match what Case Keenum did for the Vikings a year ago. The defense should hold up its end of the bargain. Matt Patricia will try to add some defense and a rushing attack to the mix in Detroit, after years of Matthew Stafford shouldering the load. The Bears continue to build up, but are probably at least one more year away from a run toward the playoffs.
Pick to win NFC North: Green Bay
Best NFC North Value: Detroit +600
Odds to win NFC South
New Orleans +150
Tampa Bay +450
The Saints have the NFC’s most complete team, and all the pieces are in place for at least one more run in the Drew Brees era. Carolina is still ironing out the kinks on offense, but the defense will keep them in the playoff hunt as they hope to peak in January. The Falcons are searching for the 2016 magic they had with Kyle Shanahan running the offense. They might be looking to scratch and claw their way into the postseason again. Tampa made some big moves to address the non-existent pass rush, but it won’t matter if Jameis Winston doesn’t take his game to the next level.
Pick to win NFC South: New Orleans
Best NFC South Value: New Orleans +150
Odds to win NFC West
Los Angeles Rams -120
San Francisco +250
Jimmy Garoppolo will lose a game at some point, but he’ll win enough to put the 49ers back in the playoffs, especially with the typical Year 2 boost in a Kyle Shanahan offense. The Rams made plenty of noise this offseason, but one year after going out with a whimper in the playoffs, are they ready to meld all these new faces and take the next step? The Legion of Boom is no more, and the Seahawks are trying to find a new identity on the fly. As good as Russell Wilson is, he might not be capable of carrying this team back to the postseason. There’s a regime change and a new quarterback (two, actually) in Arizona. David Johnson is back, but the Cards will have a tough time scoring enough points to lift a defense in flux.
Pick to win NFC West: San Francisco
Best NFC West Value: San Francisco +250