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Dodgers begin 3-game set in St. Louis
By: Nick Bracken - StatFox
Published: 8/22/2011  at  11:18:00 AM
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LOS ANGELES DODGERS (57-69, -16.5 Units)

at ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (67-60, -5.2 Units)

First pitch: Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT
Line: St. Louis -180, Los Angeles +170, Total: 7

Usually at this time of the year, the Cardinals versus the Dodgers have playoff implications written all over it. This year the Dodgers find themselves 12 games under .500 and in last place when they face St. Louis for a three-game series starting Monday night.

Los Angeles will send rookie Nate Eovaldi (1-1, 2.12 ERA) to the mound on Monday. Eovaldi is making his fourth major-league start and is coming off a 3-1 loss on Wednesday to the Brewers but pitched well, tossing six innings, allowing two runs on only five hits. Cards ace Chris Carpenter (8-8, 3.68 ERA) has owned L.A., going 6-0 with a 1.57 ERA in nine regular-season starts. The Dodgers have been subpar on the road (26-35) and even worse the last two years against winning teams in the second half of the season (31-54). Also, the Cards are 21-4 in the past 25 home meetings with the Dodgers, outscoring them 145-65 (3.2 runs per game). Look for Carpenter to dominate the Dodgers again and propel ST. LOUIS to the series-opening win Monday night.

The FoxSheets show two more trends favoring the Cardinals.

ST. LOUIS is 23-10 (69.7%, +13.5 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season. The average score was ST. LOUIS 5.1, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 2*).

Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (L.A. DODGERS) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season (NL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 to 1.350 on the season-NL. (49-14 since 1997.) (77.8%, +28.4 units. Rating = 2*).

Eovaldi is just 21 years of age, but has pitched very well to start his young professional career. He has allowed only four earned runs in 17 innings while striking out 12, but has also walked nine. Teammate Matt Kemp (.322 BA, 28 HR, 92 RBI) is currently riding an 11-game hit streak in which he is hitting .391.

The Cards need to capitalize in series against below-average teams such as the Dodgers, considering seven out of their last 11 series to finish the season are against teams with a losing record (Dodgers, Pirates twice, Reds, Mets, Cubs and Astros). Carpenter has been sizzling, going 7-1 with a 2.71 ERA in his past 11 starts. Despite just three wins in 12 home starts, Carpenter has pitched pretty well at Busch Stadium, sporting a 2.82 ERA and 1.29 WHIP.


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