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Lincecum tries to snap Padres win streak
By: Nick Bracken - StatFox
Published: 8/24/2011  at  4:57:00 AM
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SAN DIEGO PADRES (60-70, -3.2 Units)

at SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (68-61, -1.6 Units)

First pitch: Wednesday, 10:15 p.m. EDT
Line: San Francisco -180, San Diego +170, Total: 6

The struggling Giants will face the sizzling San Diego Padres on Wednesday night as the NL West foes wrap up a two-game set at AT&T Park. The Giants have dropped six of eight and are two games back in the NL West, while the Padres have won five straight including a 7-5 victory over San Francisco on Tuesday.

Padres starter Tim Stauffer has a 5.06 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in two starts against the Giants this year, and he will be opposed by Tim Lincecum, who has dominated the San Diego in his career. The two-time Cy Young Award winner is 7-4 (team is 11-5) with an outstanding 2.16 ERA in 16 starts versus the Padres. San Diego has been a strong road play this year (+10.0 Units, 32-32), but is just 8-20 against NL teams who score 3.8 runs or less a game. The Giants have been great at home (35-26) thanks in part to a bullpen ERA of 2.38 at AT&T Park. But the relievers shouldn’t get much work on Wednesday with Lincecum on the mound. Expect the ace to baffle Padres hitters again and to lead SAN FRANCISCO to the victory.

Two more FoxSheets trends cautioning bettors to stay away from the hot Padres are:

Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (SAN DIEGO) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.255) against an excellent starting pitcher (ERA <=2.70) -NL, with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season. (56-16 since 1997.) (77.8%, +31 units. Rating = 2*).

SAN DIEGO is 32-52 (38.1%, -19.3 Units) against the money line in night games this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 3.6, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 2*).

It has been hard for Stauffer (8-9, 3.43 ERA) to muster up wins this year with San Diego being last in almost every offensive category, but he pitched a gem on Thursday, throwing seven innings, allowing one run on five hits in a 3-1 victory over Florida. Despite the struggles against San Francisco this year, Stauffer has been good in his career against the Giants, going 4-2 with a 3.02 ERA in seven starts.

The Giants will welcome back Carlos Beltran Wednesday night in hopes the trade-deadline acquisition will spark an ailing offense that scored one or fewer runs in three of its past seven games. That ailing offense won’t need to provide too many runs for Lincecum (11-10, 2.53 ERA), who has giving up two runs or fewer in his past eight starts. Since June 23, Lincecum has a remarkable ERA of 1.36, but has gone 6-4 with just four total runs of support in those four losses.


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