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Calgary seeks 4th straight win hosting Montreal
By: Nick Bracken - StatFox
Published: 8/27/2011  at  4:57:00 AM
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MONTREAL ALOUETTES (5-2)

at CALGARY STAMPEDERS (5-2)

Kickoff: Saturday, 4:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Calgary -1, Total: 55

Two of the better teams in the CFL will square off Saturday as the Montreal Alouettes travel to Calgary to face the Stampeders. Montreal and Calgary are two of only three teams to have two losses or less.

Despite the recent success of these franchises, the past six meetings (three wins for each team) have all been blowouts with an average final margin of 17.5 PPG. One thing Montreal has not done well is string together wins against the spread. The Alouettes are 18-41 ATS (31%) after two or more consecutive ATS wins since 1996. Calgary has won three in a row (SU and ATS) with 99 points in the three victories. The Stampeders and Alouettes are very evenly matched, but the difference will be the electric home crowd at McMahon Stadium, propelling CALGARY to a victory.

The FoxSheets provide this pair of trends supporting the Stampeders as the pick.

Play Against - Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MONTREAL) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread, with a winning record on the season. (38-13 since 1996.) (74.5%, +23.7 units. Rating = 3*).

CALGARY is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CALGARY 31.1, OPPONENT 25.1 - (Rating = 2*).

Montreal’s Anthony Calvillo became the fourth professional quarterback to throw for 400 touchdowns in the Als last game, a 27-4 triumph over Edmonton. Montreal’s defense played outstanding, recording five sacks in the first half and allowing only 85 yards of total offense in the first half. Behind Calvillo, Montreal is leading the league in scoring with 31.7 PPG and in overall offense (412.9 YPG).

Calgary is coming off a 45-35 shootout victory in Saskatchewan on Aug. 12. The Stampeders had a hot start, scoring 24 points on their first four possessions and jumping out to a 31-14 halftime lead. Quarterback Henry Burris threw for 298 yards and three touchdowns with 258 of those yards coming in the first 30 minutes. If Calgary wants to win Saturday, it must tighten up their defense. The Stampeders allowed the 1-6 Roughriders to pile up 543 yards in offense.


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