First pitch: Monday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -145, Cincinnati +135, Total: 8

The Cincinnati Reds are winners of four straight and will host the MLB’s best, the Philadelphia Phillies, on Monday night at Great American Ball Park. The Phillies will be well-rested for this four-game series since they have not played since Friday on the account of Hurricane Irene.

Cole Hamels (13-7, 2.62 ERA) will get the ball for the mighty Phils on Monday. Hamels is making his first start since being activated from the DL due to left shoulder inflammation and will be very happy to see Cincinnati. Hamels has dominated the Reds, going 8-0 with a 1.23 ERA, including a five-hit shutout in last year’s playoffs. Trying to slow down Philly will be right-hander Homer Bailey (7-5, 4.44 ERA). Bailey hasn’t had much success against the Phillies, going 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA in four meetings. The Phillies have had no problem playing on the road where they are an NL-best 37-24 (.607) and also have lit up right-handed starters (57-37). The Reds, on the other hand, have not been too good against lefty starters (16-15) and terrible when coming off a win (29-39, -16.0 Units). A well-rested Hamels and PHILADELPHIA team should handle the streaking Reds and pull off a series-opening win on Monday night.

The FoxSheets provide a pair of three-star trends favoring the Phillies.

PHILADELPHIA is 22-3 (88.0%, +18.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 6.7, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 3*).

PHILADELPHIA is 35-10 (77.8%, +21.4 Units) against the money line after a loss this season. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 5.1, OPPONENT 2.8 - (Rating = 3*).

Hamels has been almost untouchable against the Reds when playing at the Great American Ball Park. In Cincy, Hamels is 3-0 with a 1.67 ERA in four regular-season starts. Hamels has also held the Reds to a .169 career average in the eight regular-season starts, which is his lowest average against any team. In Hamels’ last start on Aug. 12, he threw five innings, allowing three runs on six hits and a season-high-tying four walks which ended in a 4-2 loss to the Nationals.

Despite the Reds’ average record, Cincinnati has a scoring differential of +49 runs, but hasn’t managed to string together the wins. Bailey pitched well Wednesday, allowing three runs and five hits over seven innings but received a no-decision in a 6-5 loss to the Marlins. Bailey has a 4.66 ERA at home, but this number is skewed by two horrible outings (14 ER in 7 IP). He has allowed three earned runs or less in each of the other six home starts.