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Brewers look to keep rolling at home
By: Nick Bracken - StatFox
Published: 8/30/2011  at  2:10:00 PM
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ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (70-64, -9.0 Units)

at MILWAUKEE BREWERS (81-54, +21.5 Units)

First pitch: Tuesday, 8:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Milwaukee -145, St. Louis +135, Total: 8.5

The red-hot Brewers will host the Cardinals at Miller Park on Tuesday night. Milwaukee has gone 27-5 since July 26, and has opened up a 10½-game lead in the NL Central.

Edwin Jackson (10-9, 3.94 ERA) will get the ball for the Cards and try to improve his results against Milwaukee. Jackson is 1-2 with a 5.04 ERA against the Brewers in four career outings. His counterpart will be Shaun Marcum (11-4, 3.38 ERA) who has never lost to the Cards, but carries a 5.68 ERA in three starts against them. The Brew Crew have been unbelievable at home, going a majors-best 50-16 (+29.8 Units). Milwaukee also has won games it is expected to win, going 66-29 (+28.6 Units) as a favorite. On the other hand, the Cardinals are just 15-17 as an underdog and managed just one win in six tries at Miller Park this year. Expect MILWAUKEE to continue to steam-roll to the division title with another win over St. Louis.

These two four-star FoxSheets trends also side with the Brewers.

MILWAUKEE is 29-6 (82.9%, +21.1 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season. The average score was MILWAUKEE 4.7, OPPONENT 2.9 - (Rating = 4*).

MILWAUKEE is 42-12 (77.8%, +24.4 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season. The average score was MILWAUKEE 5.2, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 4*).

Jackson is coming off a good pitching performance, allowing just one earned run in six innings in a 8-4 victory over the Pirates. However, Jackson had an atrocious outing the last time he pitched in Miller Park earlier this month. He allowed 10 runs (8 ER) and a career high 14 hits, including four homers, in a 10-5 loss on Aug. 3. Albert Pujols (.288 BA, 31 HR, 78 RBI) is hitting a measly .196 (9-for-46) against Milwaukee this year and will need to heat up his bat to give the Cards a chance.

Milwaukee is on the verge of winning its first division title since 1982 and after winning three in a row, has the fourth-best record in the majors. Marcum has been great his past three starts, going 1-1 with a 1.74 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. His last time out, he gave up two runs in six innings, but was labeled with the loss in a 2-0 defeat at Pittsburgh. This was Marcum’s first loss in 10 starts since late June.


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