StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

Texas tries to cool off sizzling Rays
By: Nick Bracken - StatFox
Published: 9/6/2011  at  1:40:00 PM
  Print This Article    

TEXAS RANGERS (80-62, +1.5 Units)

at TAMPA BAY RAYS (77-63, +4.1 Units)

First pitch: Tuesday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Texas -120, Tampa Bay +110, Total: 8

It may be too little too late, but the surging Rays have gone 18-9 since August 8 and look to win their fourth straight when they host Texas on Tuesday night. The Rangers are just 2½ games up on the streaking Angels in the AL West and need to string some wins together to stay on top.

Getting the ball for Texas will be C.J. Wilson, who is seeking his second straight 15-win season. Wilson has pitched well against the Rays in his career going 3-0 with a nice 2.90 ERA. Facing Wilson will be the big right-hander, Jeff Niemann, who has a 5.79 ERA in his past three outings. Texas has been very good against right-handed starters this year going 60-40. When Wilson is on the mound as a favorite of -110 or higher, the Rangers are 33-12 over the last two seasons. Niemann has had problems winning in September, where he is 2-6 with a 5.88 ERA in his career. Tampa Bay has oddly been worse at home (38-32) than on the road (39-31) in 2011. The Rangers are starting to feel the Angels breathing down their necks and will get a solid pitching performance from C.J. Wilson in a TEXAS victory on Tuesday night.

Two more FoxSheets trends favoring the Rangers include:

TEXAS is 26-11 (70.3%, +15.2 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better this season. The average score was TEXAS 5.1, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 2*).

TEXAS is 40-26 (60.6%, +12.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season. The average score was TEXAS 4.8, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 1*).

Wilson (14-6, 3.28 ERA) has been able to give the Rangers long outings all year, going at least six innings in 24 of his 29 starts. Wilson threw a gem Thursday against Tampa, starting out with five perfect innings and finishing with two runs allowed on two hits, one walk and eight strikeouts in a 7-2 victory. Wilson did reach out bare-handed for a comebacker and hurt his index finger, but X-rays later came back negative.

The Rays still find themselves seven games behind the Wild Card leading Red Sox, but crazier things have happened in September. Niemann (9-6, 3.69 ERA) is coming off a poor performance on Thursday against Wilson and the Rangers in which he allowed five runs and six hits over five innings in the 7-2 loss. The 6-foot-9 right-hander has limited opponents to a measly .194 batting average over his past four outings, but has been killed by the gopher ball, serving up five home runs in the 27.2 innings. Niemann has been great in night games, posting a 3.24 ERA compared to his 5.33 ERA in day games.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: