First pitch: Thursday, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Boston -110, Tampa Bay +100, Total: 9.5

The Red Sox and Rays will open up a very critical four-game series on Thursday night. Boston will host Tampa Bay, leading in the Wild Card race by a slim four games with 14 games remaining.

Getting the ball for the Rays to start the series will be Jeremy Hellickson (12-10, 2.96 ERA). Hellickson has pitched decent this year against the Sox, going 1-1 with a 3.93 ERA in three starts. Starting for the BoSox will be rookie Kyle Weiland (0-1, 6.75 ERA). Weiland has pitched just four games this year, including a no-decision against the Rays on Saturday when he threw just four innings, allowing four runs on six hits in a 6-5 loss in 11 innings to the Red Sox. Tampa has been great on the road over the past two years when the money line is +125 to -125, going 45-33. The Rays who are 40-33 on the road overall, also have been good on road trips where they are 51-33 after playing three or more consecutive road games over the past two years. The Sox have been good at home (43-30), but are just 14-26 when revenging a loss versus an opponent as a road favorite over the past two seasons. Having a rookie starter on the mound in such a crucial game might not end pretty for the Sox. The pick is for TAMPA BAY to come to Boston and get one game closer in the Wild Card race.

The FoxSheets provide a pair of three-star trends backing the Rays.

TAMPA BAY is 35-14 (71.4%, +19.1 Units) against the money line after batting .240 or worse over a 10 game span this season. The average score was TAMPA BAY 5.2, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 3*).

Play Against - All teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (BOSTON) - after having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games, playing on Thursday. (85-54 since 1997.) (61.2%, +41.4 units. Rating = 3*).

The Rays know they have to win at least three out of four to give themselves a shot at the Wild Card. Over the weekend, Tampa Bay swept the Red Sox in three games so they know they have the ability to leave Boston with at least three big wins.

Hellickson gave a decent effort against the Sox on Saturday, in which he threw six innings, allowing three runs in a no-decision of a 6-5 loss. Saturday’s outing may have been average, but Hellickson has pitched terrific over his past five starts, posting a 2.00 ERA.

Weiland is a 25-year-old rookie that has pitched only four games in his brief career. With Andrew Miller throwing poorly and a banged up Erik Bedard’s uncertain return to the rotation, Weiland was given the spot and is trying to make the most of it. The Sox have gone just 3-10 in September and now have left themselves sweating with 14 games remaining. Boston will have to use its high-powered offense to support the rookie on Thursday night.