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Tigers-Yankees play decisive Game 5 Thursday
By: Nick Bracken - StatFox
Published: 10/6/2011  at  8:18:00 AM
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ALDS Game 5 - Series tied 2-2
First pitch: Thursday, 8:35 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -160, Detroit +150, Total: 9

The Yankees will host the Tigers on Thursday night for a chance to play in the American League Championship Series. New York put a hurting on Detroit in Game 4, beating the Tigers 10-1 and forcing this decisive Game 5.

Starting for the Tigers will be the lanky right-hander Doug Fister (11-13, 2.83 ERA). Fister started the resumed Game 1 on Saturday and was shelled for six runs and seven hits in just 4.2 innings. Opposing Fister will be the youngster Ivan Nova (16-4, 3.70 ERA) who also started the resumed game on Saturday and pitched very well, allowing two runs on four hits in 6.1 innings of the 9-3 victory. The Yanks have been terrific as a home favorite of -150 to -175 in which they are 22-5, and are also 8-1 in the past nine home games with Nova starting on the mound. The Tigers are 4-16 on the road after an off-day since the start of 2010. With those trends leaning towards the Yankees, Nova and NEW YORK will win Game 5 in front of a huge and rowdy home crowd.

These two highly-rated FoxSheets trends also lean towards the Yankees.

Play Against- All underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (DETROIT) - average hitting team (AVG = .265 to .279) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) -AL, with an on base percentage of .350 or better over their last 20 games. (53-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (88.3%, +40.5 units. Rating = 4*).

Play On- Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (NY YANKEES) - cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up <=1 earned runs in his last 2 outings. (86-32 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.9%, +43.8 units. Rating = 3*).

The Tigers as a team have been terrific bouncing back after losses recently. They have not dropped back-to-back games since August 28-29. Detroit is looking to get back to the ALCS for the fist time since 2006 when they advanced but eventually lost in the World Series. Despite his 11-13 overall record, Fister was phenomenal after his midseason trade to Detroit, going 8-1 with a 1.79 ERA, 57 K and just five walks in 70.1 innings in a Tigers uniform. He also pitched a quality outing in his only start versus New York this year, allowing three runs and seven hits in seven innings of work in his final game with Seattle.

Nova has been a pleasant surprise for Yankee fans all year and now will get the ball in the biggest game of the year. Prior to Saturdayís appearance, Nova had only thrown two relief innings against Detroit in his career, but didnít look scared in Game 1 when he pitched a gem in the 9-3 victory. The 24-year-old from the Dominican led all rookies with 16 wins and has not been beaten in his last 17 outings, going 13-0 with a 3.22 ERA over that span. Available for relief will be the Yankees ace CC Sabathia, who could be used in the later innings of a tight game. Sabathia threw 106 pitches in Mondayís Game 3 loss.

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