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Tigers look to even ALCS on Wednesday
By: Nick Bracken - StatFox
Published: 10/12/2011  at  5:09:00 AM
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ALCS Game 4 - Texas leads series 2-1
First pitch: Wednesday, 4:15 p.m. EDT
Line: Texas -115, Detroit +105, Total: 9.5

After finally getting the bats going in Game 3, Detroit looks to even up the series Wednesday afternoon as the Tigers host Texas in a pivotal Game 4.

Taking the hill for the Rangers on Wednesday will be lefty Matt Harrison (14-9, 3.39 ERA during regular season). Harrison has had a horrible time against the Tigers in his career, going 0-4 with a 7.43 ERA and 2.18 WHIP in five career starts. Opposing Harrison, will be 22-year-old right-hander Rick Porcello (14-9, 4.75 ERA in regular season). Porcello has a 6.30 ERA in two career starts against Texas, but pitched well his last outing against them on June 7, throwing six innings and allowing one run on six hits in an 8-1 victory. Texas has had some difficulty playing under the sun where it is only 27-24 (74-44 at night), while Detroit is a terrific 39-24 (+13.6 Units) in day games. The Rangers are labeled as the favorite on Wednesday afternoon in which they are 79-47 (63%), opposed to the Tigers who are a measly 21-32 (40%) when tagged as an underdog. Texas also has been very good bouncing back after a loss, going 42-25 (63%) in such games. The Rangers know they must win with Detroit ace Justin Verlander scheduled to pitch Game 5, so expect a desperate and motivated TEXAS team to grab Game 4 on Wednesday afternoon.

The FoxSheets provide a pair of three-star trends in support of the Rangers:

Play On - Road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (TEXAS) - with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season-AL. (140-60 since 1997.) (70%, +59.6 units. Rating = 3*).

Play On - Any team (TEXAS) - in the 4th game of a playoff series, after having won 3 of their last 4 games. (40-18 since 1997.) (69%, +24.6 units. Rating = 3*).

Harrison, who has struggled against the Tigers has not had a fun time pitching at Comerica where he is 0-3 with a 7.02 ERA in three starts in Detroit. Harrison may have gained some confidence after a decent performance his last outing against the Rays, where he threw five innings and allowed two runs on five hits and got the win in a 4-3 victory. Detroitís current roster is batting .364 lifetime against Harrison, which includes Ryan Raburn (8-for-12, 2 HR, 7 RBI), Miguel Cabrera (6-for-15, 3 RBI) and Austin Jackson (5-for-10, 2 BB). The Rangers are batting .228 in the playoffs, with the biggest culprits being Michael Young (3-for-27, 4 K), Mitch Moreland (2-of-17, 1 HR) and Elvis Andrus (4-for-24, 4 K).

Porcello is coming off two nice scoreless innings of relief in Game 1, where he didnít allow a hit. The youngster had a modest performance his last first playoff start against New York, allowing four runs over six innings, and was tagged with the loss in the 10-1 defeat. The Tigers are licking their chops to get the ball to Verlander for Game 5 and would like nothing more than to have the series tied up when he takes the mound. Delmon Young was scratched from the Game 4 lineup and is uncertain for Wednesday. Austin Jackson needs to get things started at the beginning of the lineup as he did Tuesday with three hits and an RBI.

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