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The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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Trending: NFL Final Four
By:
Scott Gramling - StatFox
Published: 1/22/2012 at 1:58:00 AM
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The Conference Championship games have taken on a different feel lately than most football fans had become accustomed. For one, no longer is the No. 1 seed a lock to be hosting the game: Prior to 2006, top seeds had hosted 21 of the 26 games since ’93—they will have hosted only six of the last 14 once this Sunday’s games are played in New England and San Francisco. With upsets becoming more frequent in the earlier rounds, the typical methods for handicapping the Conference Championships has changed. We’ll dive deeper into that as we move along, but we’ll start with the fact that home teams are just 23-15 SU & 18-19-1 ATS in the last 38 games. One thing that has stayed consistent, however, is the fact that the games in this round have been reliably high scoring. In terms of the total, OVER has been the result in 24 of 38 games (63%) since ’93, and only twice in that period was the UNDER the result in both games in a single year. Recent TrendsWe’ve already established the fact that most recent Conference Championship games have gone OVER the total. If you look back at just the games since ’05, 12 of the 14 games have seen the total go that way. Home-field advantage has been restored somewhat as well of late, with hosts on a run of 9-2 SU & 7-4 ATS dating back to the late game of January 22nd of 2006. Here are some other general handicapping tidbits you might be able to utilize this Sunday:AFC and NFC Conference Championship games have shown varying results. In the AFC, road teams are on a run of 5-7 SU & 6-6 ATS in the last 12 years. In the NFC, home field has been more advantageous, with hosts boasting a record of 5-2 SU & 4-3 ATS in the last seven games.Overall, favorites own an 11-7 ATS edge in the last nine years on Conference Championship Sunday. AFC favorites have carried that edge, going 7-2 ATS.Four of the last five NFC Championship games have gone OVER the total. The home team has averaged 27 points per game during that span.Trends by Seed NumberHere’s a breakdown of trends specific to the seed number of the playoff teams involved in the Conference Championship games:Six of the last seven times that a Conference Championship game was hosted by a non-No. 1 seed, the games went OVER the total, producing 48.3 PPG. Four of the last five non-No. 1 seeded hosts won their games, both SU & ATS.There have been 12 instances since ’93 in which a seed No. 4 or lower reached the Conference Championship Round and took on a No. 1 or No. 2. Those lesser seeds boast a 7-6 SU & 7-5-1 ATS record in those games.Trends by Line RangeLines in the conference title games have been a bit tighter than those in the previous round, with the average favorite laying less than 5.5 points since ’93. There have been seven home underdogs in that span. Take a look at these other line specific trends:Hosts have been most reliable when playing as favorites in the -3 to -9.5 line range in Conference Championship Games, going 16-8 SU & 15-9 ATS since ’93. Interestingly, the straight-up winner had been 22-0 ATS in such games before the streak ended in the January 2010 NFC title game: New Orleans won but failed to cover the 4-point spread in its 31-28 win over Minnesota. Order was restored last year when the Steelers won and covered at home against the Jets as a 4-point favorite. Eight straight contests of this type have gone OVER the total.Going back to ’93, 10 Conference Championship games have seen a line move 1.5 points or more throughout the week. Bettors are 4-5-1 ATS in those games following the money, but when the line has moved three points or more, bettors are just 0-3-1 ATS. In other words, you’d have been much better off fading the line move in such cases.
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