Odds to Win Big 12

OKLAHOMA SOONERS

2012 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 8
Defense: Starters Returning: 7
After starting the 2011 season as the favorites to win the BCS National Championship, the Sooners faltered down the stretch, losing four of their final seven games. A lot of it had to do with injuries to top offensive players WR Ryan Broyles and RB Dominique Whaley, but QB Landry Jones also struggled with 1 TD and 6 INT in his final four games, losing twice. Jones is Oklahoma’s all-time leading passer though, and he has talented weapons to use including junior WR Kenny Stills (849 rec yds, 8 TD). With Whaley (627 rush yds, 5.5 YPC, 9 TD in 6 games) and Roy Finch (605 rush yds, 5.5 YPC) running behind a great offensive line, the Sooners offense will remain explosive. The secondary has a lot of potential, but it’s a unit that struggled last year (241 passing YPG allowed, 79th in FBS). However, the front seven is fierce, returning most of the players that helped the Sooners rank among the nation’s top-12 in both sacks (3.1 per game) and Tackles For Loss (7.5 per game).

WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS

2012 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 8
Defense: Starters Returning: 6
Another team that finds itself trying to steal the thunder in the Big 12 is the Mountaineers. Geno Smith returns as the quarterback after throwing for 4,385 yards, 31 TD and just 7 INT last season. He capped his season by picking apart Clemson in the Orange Bowl for 407 yards, 6 TD and 0 INT. Smith is getting his two favorite targets back in Stedman Bailey (1,279 rec yds, 12 TD) and Tavon Austin (1,186 rec yds, 8 TD), so this WVU offense is going to remain one of the best in the nation. The problem comes on the defensive side of the ball, where the Mountaineers allowed 31.3 PPG in their final seven games. The Big 12 offenses are much more potent than the Big East and WVU’s best D-lineman in 2011, Bruce Irvin, was a first round pick in the NFL draft.

TCU HORNED FROGS

2012 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 6
Defense: Starters Returning: 7
TCU now moves to the Big 12 complete with a $164 million overhaul of its stadium, which will remain a difficult place to win for any opponent. The Horned Frogs are fresh off a 10-2 season with their only blemishes coming at Baylor (50-48) and an overtime loss to SMU. The majority of their starters return, including junior QB Casey Pachall (2,921 pass yds, 25 TD, 7 INT) and senior RB Matthew Tucker (702 rush yds, 12 TD), who were both keys in the team scoring 40.9 PPG last year (9th in FBS). The offensive line has a lot of openings, but they should be good enough by the start of the season to support this explosive backfield that rushed for 209 YPG in 2011. While the Horned Frogs have a dominant defensive line and quality linebackers, their secondary could be a problem against the strong passing offenses in the Big 12.

TEXAS LONGHORNS

2012 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 9
Defense: Starters Returning: 8
After two straight losing seasons in Big 12 play, Texas is confident it can get back to the top of the conference standings in 2012. To do so, the defense will have to lead them there. Despite playing in an explosive offensive conference, the Longhorns finished 11th in the nation in total defense (306 YPG), holding five of their final seven opponents to 20 points or less. Most of this unit remains intact, highlighted by a stellar secondary. There are still question marks on offense, namely QB with the underwhelming duo of David Ash (4 TD, 8 INT) and Case McCoy (7 TD, 4 INT) returning. Texas will be able to run the football again (203 rush YPG) with a bevy of talented backs, most notably Joe Bergeron (463 rush yds, 6.4 YPC, 5 TD) and Malcolm Brown (742 rush yds, 5 TD).

KANSAS STATE WILDCATS

2012 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 9
Defense: Starters Returning: 7
Kansas State snuck up on the rest of the Big 12 last year, finishing second only to Oklahoma State in the conference. This year the Wildcats will surprise nobody as they return QB Collin Klein and eight other offensive starters. Klein threw for 1,918 yards and 13 TD, and rushed for 1,141 yards and 27 TD (tied for 2nd in FBS). He is one of the premier dual-threat QBs in the game and rarely makes mistakes (6 INT in 300 career pass attempts). Junior RB John Hubert is also tough to bring down, rushing for 970 yards last season. The Wildcats have a solid secondary and linebacking corps, but if they want to take the next step and win the Big 12, they must do a better job pressuring the quarterback (1.6 sacks per game, 84th in FBS).

OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS

2012 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 6
Defense: Starters Returning: 8
Reality sets in this year for Cowboys fans as the best QB-WR tandem in college football (Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon) has moved on to the NFL. OSU will replace Weeden with Wes Lunt, a freshman who ran a similar offense in high school and sparkled in spring practice. OSU was able to put up 48.7 PPG last year (2nd in FBS), thanks to the best turnover margin in the nation and 26 total TD from RB Joseph Randle, who finished with 1,216 rushing yards on 5.8 YPC. Senior WR Tracy Moore (672 rec yds, 4 TD) moves up to take Blackmon’s No. 1 receiver spot. The Cowboys defense ranked among the top-40 teams in the nation in both sacks (2.2 per game) and Tackles For Loss (7.0 per game), but allowed a whopping 272 pass YPG in the pass-happy Big 12. But there is talent in the secondary, and most of last year’s defense, which held Texas Tech to six points and Oklahoma to 10, returns for the 2012 season.

BAYLOR BEARS

2012 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 6
Defense: Starters Returning: 8
Baylor begins life after the Robert Griffin III era, and it’s not looking too hot. The Bears will now rely on senior Nick Florence at the quarterback position. Florence played well in the one game he started against Texas Tech last year (165 total yards, 3 TD), but he has more career picks (nine) than TD passes (eight). One name to look out for is RB Lache Seastrunk, who transferred from Oregon after being connected to the probe into the Ducks’ use of a Texas-based prep scouting service. The offense also loses RB Terrance Ganaway and WR Kendall Wright, who combined for 36 TD in 2011, but senior WR Terrance Williams (957 rec yds, 11 TD) does return. Defensively, the Bears couldn’t stop anybody last year (488 YPG, 5th-most in FBS) and were always involved in high-scoring shootouts, allowing 37.2 PPG (8th-most in nation). Without Griffin III to bail them out, this defensive unit, which returns all but three starters, will need to be much better in 2012.

TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS

2012 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 9
Defense: Starters Returning: 9
After a miserable year on the defensive side of the ball, Tommy Tuberville brought in UNC’s Art Kaufman as defensive coordinator. He’s looking to spice things up for a unit that allowed 39.3 PPG and 486 YPG, which both placed among the seven worst schools in FBS. Kaufman and the nine returning defensive starters have no place to go but up this season. However, the Red Raiders should remain a top-notch offensive squad after gaining 472 YPG with 33.8 PPG last year. Senior QB Seth Doege is returning after a year in which he threw for 4,004 yards, 28 TD and just 10 INT. RB Eric Stephens will also be back after a dislocated knee derailed a season in which he had 565 rushing yards (5.2 YPC) and 8 TD in just five games. Texas Tech was 4-0 when he got hurt and lost seven of its final eight games without him.

IOWA STATE CYCLONES

2012 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 7
Defense: Starters Returning: 5
Iowa State showed flashes last year, upsetting 10-0 Oklahoma State in November, but the Cyclones lacked consistency, losing seven of their final 10 games. Although QB Jared Barnett threw for 376 yards and 3 TD against OSU, he struggled down the stretch and opened up a QB controversy with Steele Jantz that will continue in 2012. The Cyclones are losing two of their better WRs and quality players on their offensive line, but top RB James White (743 rush yds, 8 TD) comes back. On the other side of the ball, the defensive line said goodbye to three starters on a team that generated just 1.3 sacks per game (106th in FBS). The Cyclones do get back LB A.J Klein, who recorded a team-high 116 total tackles last season. It will take a lot of maturing for Iowa State to get back to a bowl game this year, but if there’s one thing that can be said about the Cyclones, it’s that you can never completely count them out.

KANSAS JAYHAWKS

2012 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 10
Defense: Starters Returning: 8
The Turner Gill experiment with the Jayhawks failed miserably and that ultimately led Kansas to the hiring of Charlie Weis. The head coach made a big move for his new program by getting his former QB Dayne Crist to transfer from Notre Dame. Crist (16 TD, 9 INT, 6.9 YPA in career) has a strong arm and leadership qualities to provide stability at the most important position in football. Junior RB James Sims (727 rush yds, 9 TD) and speedy sophomore Tony Pierson (88-yd TD run in spring game) are the keys to a strong rushing attack. The defense ranked last among all 120 FBS teams in both yards (516 YPG) and scoring (43.8 PPG), and will most likely struggle again as they lost a few starters and didn’t land any big-time transfers or recruits.

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