BUFFALO BILLS

2012 Odds:
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Odds to Win AFC East: 7/1
Odds to Win AFC Championship: 23/1
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLVII: 50/1
Regular Season Wins Over/Under: 7.5

2012 Preview:
Offense:
The Bills are largely committed to zone blocking, going away from two-RB backfields and running effectively out of their three-WR base. They’ll spread defenses out then use a lot of inside-zone plays, especially when Fred Jackson is healthy. If he’s 100 percent, Jackson figures to take the majority of the snaps at running back over C.J. Spiller, who’s used outside the tackles as more of an all-or-nothing runner. Both backs will be on the field at the same time in certain packages, with one of them (usually Spiller) in the slot.

Buffalo’s passing game is limited by Ryan Fitzpatrick’s lack of arm strength, forcing the team to instead rely on spreading the field. His receivers are given freedom to run and adjust routes as they see fit, which puts a heavy emphasis on experience and chemistry with Fitzpatrick. Stevie Johnson is Fitzpatrick’s security blanket, and the Bills run a lot of one-read slants off of that, with Johnson clearing and Jackson or Spiller crossing under him out of the slot. Fitzpatrick also likes to check down to tight end Scott Chandler over the middle. The Bills are one of the NFL’s more pass-heavy red zone teams. Outside the five, they’ll often spread it out with Fitzpatrick looking over the middle. David Nelson was most frequently targeted deep in opponent territory, leading the team in targets (11), catches (seven) and touchdowns (five) inside 10 yards. Johnson also has a big role, and Chandler is used in play-action.

Defense:
The Bills doled out a lot of money for OLB Mario Williams and DE Mark Anderson this offseason, and this duo should improve the team’s pass rush significantly. Williams, in particular, should thrive playing the LDE position in his new 4-3 scheme in Buffalo. He’s added some muscle to tip the scales closer to 300, which should result in fewer missed tackles in 2012. The presence of Williams and Anderson should allow 22-year-old Marcell Dareus to find more room to rush his 320-pound frame up the middle. Nick Barnett transitioned nicely to a 4-3 weakside linebacker, recording 10-plus total tackles six times last year. George Wilson stepped up as a run-stopper after the departure of Donte Whitner, and as a converted wide receiver he has excellent ball skills. He was on pace for 90 solo tackles before injuring his neck. Kelvin Sheppard is another good young talent in the box, and Jairus Byrd is a ball-hawking free safety to round out an improving secondary.

Key Offseason Moves:
ADDITIONS
QB Vince Young (from Eagles)
DE Mario Williams (from Texans)
DE Mark Anderson (from Patriots)

SUBTRACTIONS
WR Roscoe Parrish (Chargers)
OT Demetress Bell (Eagles)
DE Lionel Dotson (released)
CB Drayton Florence (Broncos)
CB Reggie Corner (Jaguars)
S Jon Corto (released)

2012 Schedule:
2012 Schedule Strength: 20.13 (19th toughest in NFL)
Week 1 - at New York Jets
Week 2 - Kansas City
Week 3 - at Cleveland
Week 4 - New England
Week 5 - at San Francisco
Week 6 - at Arizona
Week 7 - Tennessee
Week 8 - BYE WEEK
Week 9 - at Houston
Week 10 - at New England
Week 11 - Miami
Week 12 - at Indianapolis
Week 13 - Jacksonville
Week 14 - St. Louis
Week 15 - Seattle
Week 16 - at Miami
Week 17 - New York Jets

StatFox Take: Although the Bills are expected to improve on their 6-10 campaign, there are still too many question marks to bet them at -200 odds to finish .500 or better. Buffalo has not won eight games in a year since 2004, and has a 16-32 record in the past three seasons. Despite a favorable home schedule (Chiefs, Titans, Jaguars, Rams and Seahawks), the smart play here is to take the plus money.
Prediction: UNDER 7.5 wins (+160)

All NFL Previews

AFC North
Baltimore Ravens – Sunday, August 5
Cincinnati Bengals - Monday, August 6
Cleveland Browns - Tuesday, August 7
Pittsburgh Steelers - Wednesday, August 8

AFC South
Houston Texans - Thursday, August 9
Indianapolis Colts - Friday, August 10
Jacksonville Jaguars - Saturday, August 11
Tennessee Titans - Sunday, August 12

AFC West
Denver Broncos - Monday, August 13
Kansas City Chiefs - Tuesday, August 14
Oakland Raiders - Wednesday, August 15
San Diego Chargers - Thursday, August 16

NFC East
Dallas Cowboys - Friday, August 17
New York Giants - Saturday, August 18
Philadelphia Eagles - Sunday, August 19
Washington Redskins - Monday, August 20

NFC North
Chicago Bears - Tuesday, August 21
Detroit Lions - Wednesday, August 22
Green Bay Packers - Thursday, August 23
Minnesota Vikings - Friday, August 24

NFC South
Atlanta Falcons - Saturday, August 25
Carolina Panthers - Sunday, August 26
New Orleans Saints - Monday, August 27
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Tuesday, August 28

NFC West
Arizona Cardinals - Wednesday, August 29
San Francisco 49ers - Thursday, August 30
Seattle Seahawks - Friday, August 31
St. Louis Rams - Saturday, September 1