Odds to Win Mountain West

BOISE STATE BRONCOS

2012 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 5
Defense: Starters Returning: 2
Boise State loses a ton of starters on both sides of the ball, but it should still be able to win the Mountain West this season. Boise has experience on its offensive line and a great running back to find holes in sixth-year RB D.J. Harper, who returns to take over for Doug Martin, who was picked in the first round by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Harper has big shoes to fill, but he’s at least a proven player (1,642 rush yds, 24 TD in career). The same cannot be said for QB Joe Southwick, who has sat behind the all-time winningest QB in NCAA history, Kellen Moore. Defensively, the Broncos are going to have a very good secondary with the return of corners Jerrell Gavins and Jamar Taylor, who were both hampered by injuries. The unproven front seven is a question mark, and the team has a slew of new assistant coaches under Chris Petersen, including both coordinators.

NEVADA WOLF PACK

2012 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 6
Defense: Starters Returning: 6
The Wolf Pack are looking to build on a year in which they played in a bowl game by climbing to the top of the Mountain West. The 2011 Freshman of the Year, Cody Fajardo (2,401 pass yds, 17 TD), returns as the team’s QB and he’ll get back one of Nevada’s best WRs in Brandon Wemberly, who sat out 2011 after being shot in the torso. The offensive line is going to have to be completely retooled, while also blocking for a group of inexperience running backs. On defense, five seniors return in the Wolf Pack secondary, but new faces along the defensive line make it tough to believe that this team will have success stopping the run.

FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS

2012 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 7
Defense: Starters Returning: 7
The Bulldogs enter the 2012 season with one of the most promising offenses in the Mountain West. They will be returning all of their best players at skill positions including QB Derek Carr (3,544 pass yds, 26 TD, 9 INT), RB Robbie Rouse (MWC-best 1,549 rush yds; 14 total TD) and three WRs who contributed greatly to the team in 2011. The defense is going to be changing under new head coach Tim DeRuyter and new defensive coordinator Nick Toth. The timing couldn’t be better, as this team surrendered 35.2 PPG last season. They’ll be getting back their whole group of linebackers who actually performed admirably last year. Fresno will also improve an awful secondary (269 YPG allowed) with the return of S Phillip Thomas, the team’s best defensive back who didn’t play in 2011 after breaking his leg in the preseason.

WYOMING COWBOYS

2012 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 6
Defense: Starters Returning: 7
After an impressive season in 2011, Wyoming is looking to build upon its success and compete for the Mountain West title. QB Brett Smith (3,332 total yds, 31 total TD) set the MWC record for total yards as a freshman last season and growth is only expected, as the sky is the limit for this dual threat quarterback. The Cowboys will also get back their top three WRs, who combined for 129 receptions and 9 TD last season. The offensive line needs to improve as last year, Smith was running for his life far too often. Defensively, the Cowboys should be better than they were last year when they struggled mightily against the run. Playmaking CB Blair Burns (4 INT) returns in 2012 with a secondary that was dominant at times last season. The front seven is the issue here, as last year’s woes of stopping the run will prevent this team from reaching its goals.

AIR FORCE FALCONS

2012 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 3
Defense: Starters Returning: 3
Air Force is a team that will be in rebuilding mode with so many of its starters departed on both sides of the ball. Fifth-year QB Connor Dietz takes over for Tim Jefferson and although he can run (678 rush yds, 5.3 YPC in career), Dietz has attempted just 22 passes in the past two seasons. There is depth at the running back position, as 11 different Falcons rushed for more than 100 yards last season for the third-best rushing offense in FBS (315 rush YPG). Defensively, this unit allowed 34+ points six times last year and doesn’t figure to improve with so much inexperience. The strength of the defense lies among the linebackers with Alex Means (77 tackles, six sacks) the leader in the middle of the field. Air Force is going to have to rely heavily on young defensive players who saw the field last year, but don’t yet know what it’s like to play an entire grueling season.

SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS

2012 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 6
Defense: Starters Returning: 6
San Diego State was fortunate this offseason when QB Ryan Katz (2,401 pass yds, 17 TD in 2010) decided to transfer from Oregon State. Katz’ arrival will make the loss of QB Ryan Lindley sting much less, but the Aztecs will still have to replace their second-best rusher in school history, RB Ronnie Hillman. Stepping into his spot is Adam Muema who ran for 119 yards and 2 TD in a game against Boise State last season. The offensive line returns a number of starters and should not be a problem for head coach Rocky Long. Defensively, this team has to make up for the loss of their best playmakers. They’re losing their top CB Larry Parker, who had 7 INT last year, and their three leaders in sacks. Fortunately this team returns six defensive starters, so their stability at other positions should allow the next group of pass rushers to come in and make plays immediately.

COLORADO STATE RAMS

2012 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 7
Defense: Starters Returning: 8
Former Alabama OC Jim McElwain takes over the head job at CSU (replacing Steve Fairchild), and is returning most of its starters from a year ago, in which the Rams went 3-9. QB Garrett Grayson (542 pass yds, 2 TD, 6 INT) is set to be the top signal caller after starting CSU’s final three games last season. RB Chris Nwoke surprised a lot of people last year (1,130 rush yds, 9 TD) on the season gaining 232 and 269 yards in two of his final four games. Grayson’s top target this season will be TE Crockett Gillmore who came on strong last season catching 45 passes and four touchdowns. The Rams get back almost all of their defensive starters from a unit that tallied 26 sacks, but also struggled mightily against the run (234 rush YPG, 5th-worst in FBS). The extra year of experience should lead to improvement as the Rams have a decent shot at making a bowl.

HAWAII WARRIORS

2012 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 6
Defense: Starters Returning: 4
Norm Chow is set to take over for the Warriors as head coach, after stints coaching all around the NCAA and a three-year period as the offensive coordinator for the Tennessee Titans. Hawaii will be a great throwing team yet again this year, getting back QB David Graves who had two unbelievable games, totaling 768 passing yards and 5 TD in his only starts of 2011. The offensive line on this team is a very capable group and it will allow RB Joey Iosefa (548 rush yds, 7 TD) to find gaps while Graves throws to standout WR Billy Ray Stutzmann (901 rec yds, 4 TD). Chow must retool a defense that lost all of its best playmakers and only returns one senior for the 2012 season. This will be another year of Hawaii needing to put up 40+ points to emerge victorious.

UNLV REBELS

2012 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 8
Defense: Starters Returning: 5
The Rebels haven’t been in a bowl game since 2000, and if the drought continues, this could be the end of head coach Bobby Hauck’s run at UNLV. QB Caleb Herring is back after a mediocre 2011 season (1,004 pass yds, 8 TD, 6 INT), and he’ll need to be much sharper if the Rebels are going to be anywhere near the .500 mark this year. Herring will have to do it without his top three receivers from last season, which all graduated this past spring. UNLV has a solid running game, but without a passing game, that means nothing. On defense, the Rebels need to improve their pass rush, which was the only weak spot for the team last season. They return a number of players who saw a lot of action last year, despite not starting. This Rebels team has a nice group of linebackers and a few playmakers in the secondary too, but defensive adjustments have to be made this summer in order for UNLV to have success getting after the quarterback.

NEW MEXICO LOBOS

2012 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 8
Defense: Starters Returning: 6
This spring was a weird one for the Lobos as they were unable to play their spring game because of a limited number of players on their roster. That’s not quite what Bob Davie envisioned when he took the head coaching job this offseason. The team couldn’t afford to lose any of their starters, most importantly QB B.R. Holbrook and the MWC’s leader in receptions per game, WR Ty Kirk (47 receptions in 9 games). The offensive line lacks depth getting only one reliable player back in C LaMar Bratton. Defensively, this team was built to stop the run last year, but a new defensive scheme from Davie is likely to stir things up. The Lobos will be returning some of their contributors from last year, but lose their leading tackler. It’s a rebuilding year on both sides of the ball and a one-year turnaround is very unlikely.

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