CLEVELAND BROWNS

2012 Odds:
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Odds to Win AFC North: 25/1
Odds to Win AFC Championship: 50/1
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLVII: 100/1
Regular Season Wins Over/Under: 5

2012 Preview:
Offense:
In a perfect world, head coach Pat Shurmur would make this offense much more pass-heavy, but rookie Trent Richardson is his best offensive player by a wide margin. They’ll continue to pound the ball between the tackles on early downs, and Richardson can stay on the field for three downs. There’s not a lot of creativity with this running scheme, some man blocking and inside zone runs. If Montario Hardesty is able to keep his roster spot this season, he will likely spell Richardson on early downs when necessary. Veteran Brandon Jackson will probably split third down reps with Richardson. The red zone reps will be Richardson’s, as everything Cleveland does in the red zone is based on the run.

Like Shurmur, new offensive coordinator Brad Childress comes from the Andy Reid coaching tree, so there will be no big changes. With Brandon Weeden starting, this will continue to be a classic West Coast attack, so Greg Little will continue to see the majority of passes. TE Benjamin Watson is the default No. 2 over the middle of the field, while Mohamed Massaquoi’s lack of separation skills relegate him to being an infrequent target. They also find uses for No. 2 TE Evan Moore, who can stretch the middle of the field. They’ll run some screens for Richardson. In the red zone, they rarely look outside the hash marks when they throw, instead trying to isolate Moore one-on-one or looking for Josh Cribbs to win a battle over the middle.

Defense:
Cleveland actually allowed the fifth-fewest points in the league and finished 10th in total defense last year, but the Browns don’t make enough big plays necessary to compensate for what’s been a weak offense. Manning the middle after Cleveland’s switch to a 4-3 defense was D’Qwell Jackson, whose 116 solo tackles were the most anyone in the NFL has had since 2007. The best player on this unit is DE Jabaal Sheard, who dominated as a rookie, playing every down and piling up six sacks in his final seven games. He may see more double teams now, but he’ll continue to be a force who’s always on the field. Many figured Ahtyba Rubin’s gaudy tackle totals would drop last year when Cleveland switched to a 3-4 defense, but he remained a run-stuffing monster and also started flashing some pass-rushing ability in 2011. Free-agent signee Frostee Rucker is not a great pass rusher, but when he gets his hands on a ball carrier, he tends to finish the job. T.J. Ward’s disappointing 2011 was cut short by a serious foot sprain, but he’s still one of the more promising young downhill safeties in the NFL. Shutdown cornerback Joe Haden battled a knee injury for parts of last season and should also be better in 2012.

Key Offseason Moves:
ADDITIONS
DE Juqua Parker (from Eagles)
DE Frostee Rucker (from Bengals)

SUBTRACTIONS
RB Peyton Hillis (Chiefs)
C Steve Vallos (Eagles)
T Tony Pashos (released)
G Artis Hicks (Dolphins)
G Eric Steinbach (Dolphins)
DE Jayme Mitchell (released)
S Mike Adams (Broncos)

2012 Schedule:
2012 Schedule Strength: 20.38 (14th toughest in NFL)
Week 1 - Philadelphia
Week 2 - at Cincinnati
Week 3 - Buffalo
Week 4 - at Baltimore
Week 5 - at New York Giants
Week 6 - Cincinnati
Week 7 - at Indianapolis
Week 8 - San Diego
Week 9 - Baltimore
Week 10 - BYE WEEK
Week 11 - at Dallas
Week 12 - Pittsburgh
Week 13 - at Oakland
Week 14 - Kansas City
Week 15 - Washington
Week 16 - at Denver
Week 17 - at Pittsburgh

StatFox Take: Cleveland’s offense surpassed 17 points just twice in 2011, scoring 27 at Indianapolis and 20 at Cincinnati. With a rookie quarterback and no free-agent upgrades on offense, don’t expect the Browns to start piling up the points this year. This schedule looks like they will be favored no more than three times all season (hosting Bills, Chiefs and Redskins), which will make it quite difficult for the Browns to surpass five victories for the first time since their 10-6 campaign in 2007. Since that time, this club is 18-46 (.281) over four seasons.
Prediction: UNDER 5 wins (-115)

All NFL Previews

AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers - Wednesday, August 8

AFC South
Houston Texans - Thursday, August 9
Indianapolis Colts - Friday, August 10
Jacksonville Jaguars - Saturday, August 11
Tennessee Titans - Sunday, August 12

AFC West
Denver Broncos - Monday, August 13
Kansas City Chiefs - Tuesday, August 14
Oakland Raiders - Wednesday, August 15
San Diego Chargers - Thursday, August 16

NFC East
Dallas Cowboys - Friday, August 17
New York Giants - Saturday, August 18
Philadelphia Eagles - Sunday, August 19
Washington Redskins - Monday, August 20

NFC North
Chicago Bears - Tuesday, August 21
Detroit Lions - Wednesday, August 22
Green Bay Packers - Thursday, August 23
Minnesota Vikings - Friday, August 24

NFC South
Atlanta Falcons - Saturday, August 25
Carolina Panthers - Sunday, August 26
New Orleans Saints - Monday, August 27
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Tuesday, August 28

NFC West
Arizona Cardinals - Wednesday, August 29
San Francisco 49ers - Thursday, August 30
Seattle Seahawks - Friday, August 31
St. Louis Rams - Saturday, September 1