HOUSTON TEXANS

2012 Odds:
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Odds to Win AFC South: 1/5
Odds to Win AFC Championship: 6/1
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLVII: 12/1
Regular Season Wins Over/Under: 9.5

2012 Preview:
Offense:
The Texans run the league’s premier zone-blocking scheme, and they utilize it early and often. Last year, only the Tim Tebow Broncos were more run-heavy than Houston, who kept it on the ground even when quarterback Matt Schaub was healthy. When he’s under center, Arian Foster still takes about 70 percent of the reps despite the emergence of Ben Tate. The Texans keep it run-heavy in the red zone, but they’re much more likely to spell Foster with Tate in red zone situations.

The Texans use a West Coast passing game that doesn’t take a lot of chances downfield. Andre Johnson is the focal point, and they’ll play him at numerous spots and are especially effective putting him in motion and creating mismatches. Owen Daniels should be healthier in his second year back from a torn ACL and is essentially the No. 2 receiver in this offense. Foster is used frequently in the screen game. Jacoby Jones had been used as a deep threat, but that role could go to rookie DeVier Posey following Jones’ departure. When the Texans throw in the red zone, there is no clear-cut top option. Johnson usually draws a lot of attention, and Daniels led the team in red zone targets and catches. They’ll go with two tight ends often near the goal line, and the second tight end (possibly Garrett Graham) will be targeted on the occasional play-action.

Defense:
Wade Phillips made dramatic improvements to this defense last year, but he also had better personnel to work with, especially in the secondary with newcomers Johnathan Joseph and Danieal Manning. Youngsters J.J. Watt and Connor Barwin are relentless pass rushers who create turnovers, and the team really didn’t miss Mario Williams after he went down with a season-ending injury in October. Brian Cushing had a big year after moving inside in Phillips’ 3-4 defense. With the amount of blitzing Houston does, he’ll continue to make life difficult for opposing quarterbacks.

Key Offseason Moves:
ADDITIONS
QB John Beck (from Redskins)
RB Justin Forsett (from Seahawks)
FB Noran Morris (from 49ers)
LB Bradie James (from Cowboys)
LB Keyaron Fox (from Redskins)
CB Alan Ball (from Cowboys)
K Shayne Graham
P Donnie Jones (from Rams)

SUBTRACTIONS
QB Matt Leinart (released)
RB Derrick Ward (retired)
FB Lawrence Vickers (Cowboys)
WR Jacoby Jones (Ravens)
TE Joel Dreessen (Broncos)
T Eric Winston (Chiefs)
G Mike Brisiel (Raiders)
DE/LB Mario Williams (Bills)
DE Tim Bulman (Patriots)
LB DeMeco Ryans (Eagles)
CB Jason Allen (Bengals)
PK Neil Rackers (Redskins)

2012 Schedule:
2012 Schedule Strength: 19.44 (26th toughest in NFL)
Week 1 - Miami
Week 2 - at Jacksonville
Week 3 - at Denver
Week 4 - Tennessee
Week 5 - at New York Jets
Week 6 - Green Bay
Week 7 - Baltimore
Week 8 - BYE WEEK
Week 9 - Buffalo
Week 10 - at Chicago
Week 11 - Jacksonville
Week 12 - at Detroit
Week 13 - at Tennessee
Week 14 - at New England
Week 15 - Indianapolis
Week 16 - Minnesota
Week 17 - at Indianapolis

StatFox Take: The Texans represent the best Over bet in the entire NFL, which is why they, along with Buffalo, are hefty 1-to-2 prices for the Over. Houston has the seventh-easiest schedule in the NFL, thanks to a terrible AFC South division and three easy non-divisional home games against the Dolphins, Bills and Vikings. Although all five non-AFC South road games will be tough (at Broncos, Jets, Bears, Lions and Patriots), the Texans have a great opportunity to earn a first-round bye this season by racking up at least a dozen wins.
Prediction: OVER 9.5 wins (-200)

All NFL Previews

AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers

AFC South
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts - Friday, August 10
Jacksonville Jaguars - Saturday, August 11
Tennessee Titans - Sunday, August 12

AFC West
Denver Broncos - Monday, August 13
Kansas City Chiefs - Tuesday, August 14
Oakland Raiders - Wednesday, August 15
San Diego Chargers - Thursday, August 16

NFC East
Dallas Cowboys - Friday, August 17
New York Giants - Saturday, August 18
Philadelphia Eagles - Sunday, August 19
Washington Redskins - Monday, August 20

NFC North
Chicago Bears - Tuesday, August 21
Detroit Lions - Wednesday, August 22
Green Bay Packers - Thursday, August 23
Minnesota Vikings - Friday, August 24

NFC South
Atlanta Falcons - Saturday, August 25
Carolina Panthers - Sunday, August 26
New Orleans Saints - Monday, August 27
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Tuesday, August 28

NFC West
Arizona Cardinals - Wednesday, August 29
San Francisco 49ers - Thursday, August 30
Seattle Seahawks - Friday, August 31
St. Louis Rams - Saturday, September 1