INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

2012 Odds:
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Odds to Win AFC South: 15/1
Odds to Win AFC Championship: 50/1
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLVII: 100/1
Regular Season Wins Over/Under: 5

2012 Preview:
Offense:
There’s been a lot of turnover with the Colts, and it should be evident in the new look of their running game. Offensive line coach Harold Goodwin, who came over from Pittsburgh with new offensive coordinator Bruce Arians, is versed in more of a power man-blocking scheme. Indy will try to be much more physical up front as opposed to past years. It will be a huge adjustment for their smallish o-line. Delone Carter would seem to be a better fit for their new style than Donald Brown, but Brown’s more well-rounded skill set will likely make this at least a time share. Carter seems likely to get the first crack at goal-line carries.

Andrew Luck essentially ran his own offense at Stanford and did it with surprising balance. This offense will feature a lot of timing routes and the Colts figure to install a two-tight end base after drafting Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen in the top 70. Fleener may be their top deep threat, stretching the middle of the field for Reggie Wayne (who will be Luck’s No. 1 target). Arians ran a lot of deep crossing routes in Pittsburgh, but Donnie Avery and rookie T.Y. Hilton are Indy’s only WRs with speed. Luck figures to get a little more freedom in the red zone than the typical rookie quarterback. The Colts don’t have the line to really get a push in a short field, so they’ll have to get creative. Fleener and Wayne are both capable red zone targets.

Defense:
The Colts defense was atrocious in 2011, and they could be just as bad this season. Andrew Luck might lower Indy’s time on the defensive end of the field (NFL-high 33:46 per game last year), but this is a unit with a bunch of holes to patch up, and Indy focused more on offensive improvements in the draft. Dwight Freeney will shift to outside linebacker this season with Indy switching to a 3-4 under new defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano—although it will be adjustment for the veteran, he should be an effective pass rusher as long as he remains healthy. The undersized Pat Angerer made a lot of tackles last season after moving to middle LB in Week 2, and he’ll be the team’s primary run-stopper in Pagano’s 3-4. Antoine Bethea is more effective in run support than he is in pass coverage, and his contributions will be key playing behind an undermanned front seven that will be transitioning to a new scheme.

Key Offseason Moves:
ADDITIONS
QB Drew Stanton (from Jets)
RB Mewelde Moore (from Steelers)
RB/KR Deji Karim (from Jaguars)
WR Donnie Avery (from Titans)
T Winston Justice (from Eagles)
T George Foster (last played in 2008)
C Mike McGlynn (from Bengals)
C Samson Satele (from Raiders)
DE Cory Redding (from Ravens)
NT Brandon McKinney (from Ravens)
LB Greg Lloyd (from Eagles)
LB Moise Fokou (from Eagles)
CB Justin King (from Rams)
CB Cassius Vaughn (from Broncos)
S Tom Zbikowski (from Ravens)

SUBTRACTIONS
QB Peyton Manning (Broncos)
QB Curtis Painter (Ravens)
QB Dan Orlovsky (Buccaneers)
RB Joseph Addai (Patriots)
FB Chris Gronkowski (Broncos)
WR Pierre Garcon (Redskins)
WR Anthony Gonzalez (Patriots)
TE Dallas Clark (Buccaneers)
TE Jacob Tamme (Broncos)
C Jeff Saturday (Packers)
C Jamey Richard (Patriots)
C Mike Pollak (Panthers)
T Quinn Ojinnaka (Rams)
T Ryan Diem (retired)
G Jaimie Thomas (released)
G Ben Ijalana (released)
DE Jamaal Anderson (Bengals)
LB Zac Diles (Titans)
LB Philip Wheeler (Raiders)
LB Gary Brackett (released)
CB Jacob Lacey (Lions)
CB Kevin Thomas (Eagles)
S Stevie Brown (Giants)
S Melvin Bullitt (released)

2012 Schedule:
2012 Schedule Strength: 20.31 (15th toughest in NFL)
Week 1 - at Chicago
Week 2 - Minnesota
Week 3 - Jacksonville
Week 4 - BYE WEEK
Week 5 - Green Bay
Week 6 - at New York Jets
Week 7 - Cleveland
Week 8 - at Tennessee
Week 9 - Miami
Week 10 - at Jacksonville
Week 11 - at New England
Week 12 - Buffalo
Week 13 - at Detroit
Week 14 - Tennessee
Week 15 - at Houston
Week 16 - at Kansas City
Week 17 - Houston

StatFox Take: Five wins for any team on an over/under looks enticing, but who are the rebuilding Colts really going to beat? They’ll be significant road underdogs all year, having gone 0-8 last year, losing by an average score of 31-13. Even if they miraculously win a couple of road games, they’ll still need to go 4-4 at home to hit the Over. Expect a slight uptick from a 2-14 season, but don’t count on this club to triple its win total in 2012.
Prediction: UNDER 5 wins (+105)

All NFL Previews

AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers

AFC South
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars - Saturday, August 11
Tennessee Titans - Sunday, August 12

AFC West
Denver Broncos - Monday, August 13
Kansas City Chiefs - Tuesday, August 14
Oakland Raiders - Wednesday, August 15
San Diego Chargers - Thursday, August 16

NFC East
Dallas Cowboys - Friday, August 17
New York Giants - Saturday, August 18
Philadelphia Eagles - Sunday, August 19
Washington Redskins - Monday, August 20

NFC North
Chicago Bears - Tuesday, August 21
Detroit Lions - Wednesday, August 22
Green Bay Packers - Thursday, August 23
Minnesota Vikings - Friday, August 24

NFC South
Atlanta Falcons - Saturday, August 25
Carolina Panthers - Sunday, August 26
New Orleans Saints - Monday, August 27
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Tuesday, August 28

NFC West
Arizona Cardinals - Wednesday, August 29
San Francisco 49ers - Thursday, August 30
Seattle Seahawks - Friday, August 31
St. Louis Rams - Saturday, September 1