DENVER BRONCOS

2012 Odds:
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Odds to Win AFC West: 8/5
Odds to Win AFC Championship: 6/1
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLVII: 12/1
Regular Season Wins Over/Under: 8.5

2012 Preview:
Offense:
This entire offense will obviously be revamped going from Tim Tebow to Peyton Manning. Before they scrapped the entire playbook to run Tebow’s zone-spread stuff, they were reinstalling a more traditional zone-blocking scheme under o-line coach Dave Magazu (they had moved to more of a man scheme under Josh McDaniels’ regime). Willis McGahee will have an adjustment to make again; he benefitted from the threat of Tebow last year, but was mediocre in traditional sets and put the ball on the ground far too much. Rookie Ronnie Hillman could push him on early downs and also see a good portion of the reps on third down.

This offense is basically being handed over to Peyton Manning. Manning’s offense is all about feel; it’s a lot of option routes and adjustments at the line of scrimmage. Demaryius Thomas is his most gifted receiver, but he’ll have a major adjustment to make after playing in a run-heavy, triple-option offense in college, then Tebow’s zone-read in his first significant NFL action. Eric Decker, who has experience in pro style offenses, should be able to pick this up more quickly. The Broncos figure to use two tight ends often, with Joel Dreessen blocking while Jacob Tamme plays more H-back and occasional slot as a receiver. The Broncos’ first option will be to throw it in the red zone. During his time with the Colts, Manning would go to the line with a passing play and audible to a run only if needed.

Defense:
John Fox certainly made his mark felt on the defense in his first year as Denver’s head coach. The Broncos D will benefit from Peyton Manning leading longer drives on offense in 2012. The healthy return of Elvis Dumervil to partner with Von Miller forms a potent pass-rushing LB tandem. After missing 2010 with a torn pectoral muscle, Dumervil took a while to adjust to Denver’s new 4-3 scheme. He had all 9.5 of his sacks in November/December, showing he’s very capable of returning to his 2009 form. Miller isn’t consistent against the run, but he is a 15-sack threat. He struggled late last year, with just two total tackles and zero sacks over the final three weeks, but that can likely be chalked up to him hitting the rookie wall.

Key Offseason Moves:
ADDITIONS
QB Peyton Manning (from Colts)
QB Caleb Hanie (from Bears)
FB Chris Gronkowski (Trade/Colts)
WR Andre Caldwell (from Bengals)
WR Brandon Stokley (from Giants)
TE Jacob Tamme (from Colts)
TE Joel Dreessen (from Texans)
DT Justin Bannan (from Rams)
LB Keith Brooking (from Cowboys)
CB Tracy Porter (from Saints)
CB Drayton Florence (from Bills)
S Mike Adams (from Browns)
S Jim Leonhard (from Jets)

SUBTRACTIONS
QB Tim Tebow (Jets)
QB Brady Quinn (Chiefs)
FB Spencer Larsen (Patriots)
WR Eddie Royal (Chargers)
TE Daniel Fells (Patriots)
TE Dante Rosario (Chargers)
DE Derrick Harvey (Bengals)
DT Ryan McBean (Ravens)
DT Brodrick Bunkley (Saints)
LB Mario Haggan (Rams)
CB Jonathan Wilhite (Bears)
CB Andre Goodman (released)
CB Cassius Vaughn (Colts)
S Brian Dawkins (retired)

2012 Schedule:
2012 Schedule Strength: 20.81 (6th toughest in NFL)
Week 1 - Pittsburgh
Week 2 - at Atlanta
Week 3 - Houston
Week 4 - Oakland
Week 5 - at New England
Week 6 - at San Diego
Week 7 - BYE WEEK
Week 8 - New Orleans
Week 9 - at Cincinnati
Week 10 - at Carolina
Week 11 - San Diego
Week 12 - at Kansas City
Week 13 - Tampa Bay
Week 14 - at Oakland
Week 15 - at Baltimore
Week 16 - Cleveland
Week 17 - Kansas City

StatFox Take: This is certainly a tough schedule, with only one indoor game for Peyton Manning all year (at Falcons). The easiest road trip will be at Carolina, which is no gimme, but is not nearly as difficult as winning in New England, Baltimore, Cincinnati or Atlanta, all playoff teams in 2011. Denver will be favored heavily in just two games all year (hosting Buccaneers and Browns), and although the team historically is strong at home, the Steelers, Texans, Saints could all prevail in the Mile High City. All three division opponents should be improved this year, which is bad news for a Broncos club that is 4-10 in its past 14 AFC West tilts. The odds are an unfavorable 5-to-8 to bank on the Broncos finishing above .500, which is something they haven’t done since a 9-7 campaign in 2007. Take the plus money and expect a .500 season or worse in Denver.
Prediction: UNDER 8.5 wins (+130)

All NFL Previews

AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers

AFC South
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans

AFC West
Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs - Tuesday, August 14
Oakland Raiders - Wednesday, August 15
San Diego Chargers - Thursday, August 16

NFC East
Dallas Cowboys - Friday, August 17
New York Giants - Saturday, August 18
Philadelphia Eagles - Sunday, August 19
Washington Redskins - Monday, August 20

NFC North
Chicago Bears - Tuesday, August 21
Detroit Lions - Wednesday, August 22
Green Bay Packers - Thursday, August 23
Minnesota Vikings - Friday, August 24

NFC South
Atlanta Falcons - Saturday, August 25
Carolina Panthers - Sunday, August 26
New Orleans Saints - Monday, August 27
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Tuesday, August 28

NFC West
Arizona Cardinals - Wednesday, August 29
San Francisco 49ers - Thursday, August 30
Seattle Seahawks - Friday, August 31
St. Louis Rams - Saturday, September 1