Odds to Win Sun Belt

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL GOLDEN PANTHERS

2012 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 7
Defense: Starters Returning: 10
FIU won eight games last season as it continues to turn around a program that was once bad on and off the field. The Golden Panthers offensive strength will shift from their passing game to the running game, as superstar WR T.Y Hilton departs and emerging RB Kedrick Rhodes (1,149 rush yds, 8 TD) returns. The QB position will likely be handed to sophomore Jack Medlock, who appeared in five games last season, including a solid performance against FAU in which he racked up 182 total yards and two touchdowns. Defensively, they’re returning nearly every player from last season’s roster. The strength will be their pass defense, as all of their secondary returns, as well as pass rushers Greg Hickman (5 sacks) and Tourek Williams (4.5 sacks).

ARKANSAS STATE RED WOLVES

2012 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 6
Defense: Starters Returning: 3
Arkansas State dazzled in Hugh Freeze’s first year as a head coach, going undefeated in conference play. Freeze bolted for a chance to coach in the SEC (at Ole Miss) and will be replaced by Gus Malzahn, a former Auburn offensive coordinator. Malzahn will be getting back offensive weapons in QB Ryan Aplin (3,588 yards, 19 TD, 16 INT) and WRs Taylor Stockemer (756 rec yds, 7 TD) and Josh Jarboe (730 rec yds): the receivers will need to replace the production of the departed Dwayne Frampton, who caught 94 passes for 1,156 yards last year. RB Frankie Jackson (355 rush yds, 6 TD) will be running behind an inexperienced offensive line. The Red Wolves return only three starters from last year’s solid defense.

TROY TROJANS

2012 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 9
Defense: Starters Returning: 6
The 2011 season was a disastrous one for the Trojans, whose program had been consistently atop the Sun Belt from 2006-10. Troy struggled on defense (33.7 PPG, 465 YPG) and turned the ball over far too often on offense, contributing to a 3-9 record. There is some hope for this year’s team, which has plenty of experience. Coming back on offense are QB Corey Robinson (3,411 pass yds, 21 TD, 15 INT), WR Eric Thomas (67 rec, 875 yds, 9 TD) and RB Shawn Southward (556 rush yds, 4 TD). The offensive line struggled at times last season and lost OT James Brown and C Zach Swindall, arguably their top two linemen. Defensively, this team will continue to have its issues. The secondary was a weakness last season and they are transitioning from a 3-4 to a 4-3 base. The linebackers are a strength, but Troy can’t give up another 20 plays of 40+ yards (11 of 50+ yds), and still expect to compete for a Sun Belt title.

LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE RAGIN’ CAJUNS

2012 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 8
Defense: Starters Returning: 2
Mark Hudspeth did one of the best coaching jobs in the nation last season, winning nine games with a team that had lost nine in 2010. The Ragin’ Cajuns succeeded behind an explosive offense that gets back nearly all of its main contributors. Signal caller Blaine Gautier (2,958 pass yds, 23 TD, 6 INT) is back after a superb season and will once again have the luxury of throwing to WR Javone Lawson (1,092 yards, 8 TDs). Defensively, this team was a mess last season (29.9 PPG allowed) and returns two starters (which in this case could be a positive). The defense has a lot of young talent that saw the field last year, and some junior college transfers who will be asked to contribute right away.

LOUISIANA-MONROE WARHAWKS

2012 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 8
Defense: Starters Returning: 5
The Warhawks could be looking at their first bowl-eligible season since joining the FBS. The biggest obstacle for Monroe will be improving an offensive line that tied for the most sacks allowed in the Sun Belt last season. QB Kolton Browning (2,483 pass yds, 13 TD, 8 INT) is looking to bounce back after experiencing a little bit of a sophomore slump in 2011, but he needs his offensive line to keep him clean. If the o-line does improve, RB Jyruss Edwards (667 rush yds, 11 TD) has the talent to run for 1,000 yards. Defensively, this team excelled stopping the run last year (100 rush YPG, 8th in FBS) and should do more of the same with a strong influx of talent joining the unit. DE Kentarius Caldwell (3.5 sacks) will look to improve on a mediocre season. He will need to put more pressure on the QB with ULM’s top two sackers gone.

WESTERN KENTUCKY HILLTOPPERS

2012 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 9
Defense: Starters Returning: 6
It may look like Western Kentucky is set on offense with the number of starters they’re returning, but they are losing RB Bobby Rainey, who accounted for nearly half of the team’s total yards last season. Rainey was the offense for the Hilltoppers with 2,056 total yards and 17 TD, so replacing him is not going to be a walk in the park. The team is returning a very solid offensive line, and it will be QB Kawaun Jakes’ (1,854 pass yds, 10 TD) turn to put the team on his back. Jakes needs to cut down his turnovers after throwing 12 interceptions on just 276 attempts. Defensively, they have a very good front seven and should excel stopping the run and getting after the quarterback. Their young secondary will have to play better this season for the ‘Toppers to make a push for a .500 record, but the success of this team ultimately will lie in the hands of Jakes and the offense.

NORTH TEXAS MEAN GREEN

2012 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 8
Defense: Starters Returning: 5
North Texas is yet another Sun Belt team losing its workhorse, RB Lance Dunbar. The offense will rely on QB Derek Thompson, who performed admirably as a freshman last season (1,759 pass yds, 11 TD, 6 INT). Thompson will have two of his main targets back from last year, Brelan Chancellor (457 rec yds) and Christopher Bynes (442 rec yds, 5 TD), but it will be tough to replace Dunbar, who had 1,115 rushing yards and 12 total TD. The RB job will be split between four different backs, but Jeremy Brown (five carries, 23 yds) appears to be the best of the bunch. Defensively, six starters are gone from a team that prided itself on causing turnovers. The Mean Green ranked 15th in the nation in turnover margin at +0.8 per game.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE BLUE RAIDERS

2012 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 6
Defense: Starters Returning: 6
The Blue Raiders have a lot of issues to address. It starts with replacing 80 percent of an offensive line that was one of the best in the nation last year. They do, however, bring back most of the skill position talent that contributed to their Air Raid offense last season. QB Logan Kilgore (2,237 pass yds, 18 TD, 12 INT) is back and will again be handing off to RBs Benny Cunningham and William Pratcher (combined 1,086 rush yds, 6 TD). Kilgore’s go-to WR will be Tavarres Jefferson (51 catches). Defensively, this team loses its best linebackers and defensive backs, which is a major problem when factoring in that this defensive line struggled against the run last year (230 rush YPG allowed, 7th-most in FBS).

FLORIDA ATLANTIC OWLS

2012 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 6
Defense: Starters Returning: 8
The Owls finished 1-11 last year and are likely in for another long season in 2012. The first, and most important, job for new head coach Carl Pelini is going to be finding a quarterback who can implement the team’s new spread offense. Junior college transfer Melvin German is best suited for this role among a group of pro-style QBs. The only playmaker ready to contribute this year is WR DeAndre Richardson (32 rec, 269 yds), whose potential has been untapped thus far. Defensively, Pelini is working in new schemes that tailor more to his junior college transfers than his returning starters. This team is a work in progress and just being competitive in inevitable losses would be a step in the right direction.

SOUTH ALABAMA JAGUARS

2012 Preview:
Offense: Starters Returning: 4
Defense: Starters Returning: 9
South Alabama begins the fourth season in the history of the program, and first as an FBS member. The Jaguars return only four starters on offense, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing when considering that they ranked 88th in total offense at the FCS level last season. The offense will shift from a power-running attack to a spread offense. Sophomore quarterback C.J. Bennett is favored to win the starting job despite a poor 2011 season (164 pass YPG, 7 TD, 17 INT), though he will be pushed by redshirt freshman Trey Fetner, who is more of a dual running-passing threat. The defense is in better shape with nine starters returning, but the team last year racked up only 15 sacks against weak competition. The unit’s best player is senior Jake Johnson, who in 2011 led South Alabama in tackles. The two new starters on defense will be the cornerbacks, which doesn’t bode well in a conference that has so many teams employing a spread offense.

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