BALTIMORE ORIOLES (66-56)
at TEXAS RANGERS (71-50)
First pitch: Tuesday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Texas -190, Baltimore +180, Total: 10
Winners of three games in a row, the Rangers will look to win again versus the Orioles after a series-opening 5-1 victory on Monday.
Scott Feldman takes Texas into this game as heavy favorites despite a 4.82 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 5-8 record as a starter this year. He averages just 5.4 innings per start and has lost two outings in a row with a 5.40 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. He faces Chris Tillman, who has been solid since joining the Baltimore rotation in July with a 3.65 ERA and 5-2 record in eight starts. Heís been even better on the road, where he has a 2.61 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 3-1 record in four starts. While the Rangers are understandably favored here, facing a Baltimore offense that has scored more than three runs just once in its past five games, Feldman inspires nowhere near enough confidence to be such heavy chalk. Furthermore, the Orioles are the fifth-best road team in the majors at 34-27 (.557), two games better than their home mark. Take the money and ride BALTIMORE in this one.
This rare four-star FoxSheets trend also favors the Orioles:
TEXAS is 14-24 (36.8%, -22.4 Units) against the money line after allowing 2 runs or less this season. The average score was TEXAS 4.4, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 4*).
Texas is 9-1 in the past 10 games of this series, outscoring Baltimore 87-28. However, the Orioles are +1.9 units (8-13 record) against the Rangers over the past three seasons thanks to skewed money lines such as this one. Tillman has pitched against them twice in his career, accumulating a solid 3.38 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in two starts, in which he is 1-1. The worse of those starts (6 IP, 5 ER) came in September 2009, also against Feldman, but in his lone start in Arlington in July 2010, he held the Rangers to two hits and zero earned runs in 7.1 frames, taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning. Tillman has averaged just 5.2 innings per start this year, so a big part of whether or not heíll win, will fall on the strong Baltimore bullpen, which has a 3.01 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 2012. The Oís pen is even better on the road with a 2.66 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, earning 24 saves in 29 chances (83%).
The Texas offense enters this game hot with 16 runs and 29 hits in the past two games. Overall, the Rangers rank first in the majors in runs (612), batting average (.277) and on-base percentage (.340), while ranking second in slugging (.441). Feldman is an impressive 4-0 in his career against the Orioles with a 3.23 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. However, he hasnít faced them since 2010. And there will be a lot of pressure on the Texas bullpen in this one with Feldmanís short stints. Rangers relievers have a 3.38 ERA in 2012, earning 29 saves in 34 chances (85%).