DETROIT LIONS

2012 Odds:
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Odds to Win NFC North: 4/1
Odds to Win NFC Championship: 12/1
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLVII: 25/1
Regular Season Wins Over/Under: 9

2012 Preview:
Offense:
The Lions couldn’t run the ball last year, so they pretty much stopped trying: They were the NFL’s most pass-heavy offense, throwing 66.4 percent of the time. When they do run it’s often out of a spread passing formation; more than 40 percent of their running plays were out of the shotgun. Jahvid Best will take the majority of the reps as long as he’s healthy, with Kevin Smith and Mikel Leshoure rotating in. Leshoure figures to be in line for short-yardage and more traditional running formations, and he could see a handful of short touchdowns as the team’s goal line back.

This is an aggressive downfield passing game that has Matthew Stafford looking to get the ball to Calvin Johnson on just about every play. They’ll start using Titus Young to stretch the middle of the field, and Nate Burleson is often targeted at the line of scrimmage (rookie Ryan Broyles is his heir apparent). Brandon Pettigrew is pretty much a possession wide receiver working the middle of the field, whereas No. 2 TE Tony Scheffler, who only plays about 30 percent of the snaps, stretches the middle of the field. Best and Smith are heavily involved in the screen game. Not surprisingly, the Lions threw a ton in the red zone last year. They scored 37 touchdowns from 19 yards or less last year, and only eight were rushing. When they throw in the red zone, Johnson is targeted most of the time with Pettigrew not far behind.

Defense:
The Lions defense has improved tremendously over the past four years. Detroit still allows too many points and yards against the league’s top offenses, but this unit has the ability to punish below-average offenses. Expect breakout years from young star DLs Nick Fairley and Ndamukong Suh, who will enter the season injury-free and out to prove to the world that he can dominate legally, and not just stomp on unprotected offensive linemen. DL Kyle Vanden Bosch started 2012 strong before fizzling in the second half of the season (13 solo tackles, three sacks). He’s certainly on the downside of his career. Stephen Tulloch didn’t match his gaudy 2010 tackle numbers after coming over from Tennessee to join a unit that has two active outside linebackers in DeAndre Levy and Justin Durant, but he’s reliable in the middle, especially against the run.

Key Offseason Moves:
ADDITIONS
T Jonathan Scott (from Steelers)
G Bill Nagy (from Cowboys)
LB Everette Brown (from Chargers)
CB Jacob Lacey (from Colts)
CB/KR Justin Miller (did not play in 2010 and 2011)
CB Drew Coleman (from Jaguars); placed on IR
S Sean Jones (from Buccaneers)

SUBTRACTIONS
QB Drew Stanton (Colts)
WR Rashied Davis (Bears)
TE Will Heller (released)
G Leonard Davis (49ers)
LB Bobby Carpenter (Patriots)
CB Eric Wright (Buccaneers)
CB Aaron Berry (released)

2012 Schedule:
2012 Schedule Strength: 19.88 (22nd toughest in NFL)
Week 1 - St. Louis
Week 2 - at San Francisco
Week 3 - at Tennessee
Week 4 - Minnesota
Week 5 - BYE WEEK
Week 6 - at Philadelphia
Week 7 - at Chicago
Week 8 - Seattle
Week 9 - at Jacksonville
Week 10 - at Minnesota
Week 11 - Green Bay
Week 12 - Houston
Week 13 - Indianapolis
Week 14 - at Green Bay
Week 15 - at Arizona
Week 16 - Atlanta
Week 17 - Chicago

StatFox Take: The Lions have an easier schedule than most, as they face just a pair of 2011 playoff teams on the road (49ers in Week 2, Packers in Week 14). The home schedule isn’t much tougher with just three playoff teams from a year ago (Packers, Texans and Falcons). This team is built on throwing the football, and there should be only one freezing cold venue to play in all year (Lambeau Field) since the schedule has the Lions playing at Philadelphia and at Chicago in mid-October instead of later in the season. Also, Detroit plays a quarter of its games against the three worst teams in the league last year (3-13 Vikings (two), 2-14 Colts and 2-14 Rams). It’s more than a reasonable expectation to think the talent-rich Lions will win 10+ games in 2012.
Prediction: OVER 9 wins (-115)

All NFL Previews

AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers

AFC South
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans

AFC West
Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs
Oakland Raiders
San Diego Chargers

NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Redskins

NFC North
Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers - Thursday, August 23
Minnesota Vikings - Friday, August 24

NFC South
Atlanta Falcons - Saturday, August 25
Carolina Panthers - Sunday, August 26
New Orleans Saints - Monday, August 27
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Tuesday, August 28

NFC West
Arizona Cardinals - Wednesday, August 29
San Francisco 49ers - Thursday, August 30
Seattle Seahawks - Friday, August 31
St. Louis Rams - Saturday, September 1