GREEN BAY PACKERS

2012 Odds:
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Odds to Win NFC North: 1/4
Odds to Win NFC Championship: 7/2
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLVII: 7/1
Regular Season Wins Over/Under: 11.5

2012 Preview:
Offense:
The running game is an afterthought for the Packers, more often something Aaron Rodgers audibles to at the line. It’s a zone-blocking scheme and they’ve had good success with it. Cedric Benson and James Starks are the only backs on the roster who have had significant NFL experience, but coach Mike McCarthy has leaned towards a time share in recent years (a big reason why they spent a third-round pick on Alex Green in 2010). Green, if he’s recovered from a torn ACL, or Brandon Saine should work their way into a timeshare, with Starks taking about 60 percent of the reps. John Kuhn will take short-yardage duties.

The Packers have shown a lot of versatility in their passing game, throwing almost everything downfield. Greg Jennings still gets the most looks, with Jordy Nelson taking advantage of single coverage and out-producing him despite fewer targets. They’ll primarily play three-wide and go four-wide often, with James Jones set to take on a bigger role as the third receiver. They also rotate their receivers frequently, even Jennings and Nelson. Jermichael Finley works medium-to-deep in the middle of the field. The backs serve as check downs, but Rodgers is often willing to throw into coverage and trust his receivers. Green Bay is very pass-happy in the red zone; they threw more than 70 percent of the time in goal-to-go situations, a higher rate than any team in the NFL.

Defense:
Green Bay tied for the league lead with 38 forced turnovers last year, and will continue to pick off passes with a ball-hungry secondary that frequently takes chances. The addition of run-clogging DTs Anthony Hargrove and Daniel Muir will allow relentless pass rusher Clay Matthews to get to the quarterback. Desmond Bishop has been a rock since moving into the starting lineup in 2010, averaging 8.5 tackles per game over 25 career starts. He’s also the rare inside linebacker who can pick up a sack nearly every other game. Despite his age, Charles Woodson is still a force who will create turnovers whether he plays cornerback or safety, and he has become one of the NFL’s better defensive backs in run support. The other starters in the secondary—Morgan Burnett, Tramon Williams and Charles Peprah—go for the big play, but end up surrendering as many as they make.

Key Offseason Moves:
ADDITIONS
RB Cedric Benson (from Bengals)
C Jeff Saturday (from Colts)
G/T Reggie Wells (played with Panthers in 2011)
DE Phillip Merling (from Dolphins)
DT Anthony Hargrove (from Seahawks)
DT Daniel Muir (played with Colts in 2011)

SUBTRACTIONS
QB Matt Flynn (Seahawks)
C Scott Wells (Rams)
OT Chad Clifton (released)
CB Pat Lee (Raiders)
S Nick Collins (released)
S Charlie Peprah (released)

2012 Schedule:
2012 Schedule Strength: 20.56 (12th toughest in NFL)
Week 1 - San Francisco
Week 2 - Chicago
Week 3 - at Seattle
Week 4 - New Orleans
Week 5 - at Indianapolis
Week 6 - at Houston
Week 7 - at St. Louis
Week 8 - Jacksonville
Week 9 - Arizona
Week 10 - BYE WEEK
Week 11 - at Detroit
Week 12 - at New York Giants
Week 13 - Minnesota
Week 14 - Detroit
Week 15 - at Chicago
Week 16 - Tennessee
Week 17 - at Minnesota

StatFox Take: Winning a dozen games is a tall task for any team, especially one with the 12th-hardest schedule in the NFL. Green Bay’s 15-1 campaign in 2011 was just its second 12-win season in the past nine years. This year, the Packers have three difficult home games in September (49ers, Bears and Saints), when Lambeau Field isn’t as daunting in tolerable weather conditions. Road trips to Chicago and Detroit are both difficult, as are non-divisional visits to face the Seahawks, Texans and Super Bowl Champion Giants. The Packers are a great team, but still have some holes to fill with multiple injuries to their running backs and a suspect defense that allowed the most yards in the NFL last year (412 YPG). They should still make the playoffs, but the pick here, especially with even money, is for the Pack to finish 11-5 or worse.
Prediction: UNDER 11.5 wins (Even)

All NFL Previews

AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers

AFC South
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans

AFC West
Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs
Oakland Raiders
San Diego Chargers

NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Redskins

NFC North
Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings - Friday, August 24

NFC South
Atlanta Falcons - Saturday, August 25
Carolina Panthers - Sunday, August 26
New Orleans Saints - Monday, August 27
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Tuesday, August 28

NFC West
Arizona Cardinals - Wednesday, August 29
San Francisco 49ers - Thursday, August 30
Seattle Seahawks - Friday, August 31
St. Louis Rams - Saturday, September 1