MINNESOTA VIKINGS

2012 Odds:
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Odds to Win NFC North: 25/1
Odds to Win NFC Championship: 75/1
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLVII: 150/1
Regular Season Wins Over/Under: 6

2012 Preview:
Offense:
The Vikings will continue to transition from the zone-blocking scheme they used under Brad Childress to the man-to-man scheme offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave installed in his first season last year. If anything, the new system was a plus for Adrian Peterson and Toby Gerhart, who were both excellent running the ball last season. After tearing his ACL last December, Peterson might not be ready to go full speed in September, in which case Gerhart would carry a heavy workload with Lex Hilliard seeing spot duty. Percy Harvin also sees a couple of carries every game. Peterson gets a big majority of the red zone touches when healthy. If he’s out, Gerhart will assume that role and the Vikings will likely use him often.

Musgrave has Christian Ponder moving around a lot in a West Coast passing game. Head coach Leslie Frazier said Harvin will play more following a season in which he was on the field for about 60 percent of the team’s snaps. After he serves a three-game suspension, Jerome Simpson will provide a vertical threat. Michael Jenkins will still see the field, but not many targets. Ponder looks short often, so TE Kyle Rudolph should be targeted frequently. They’ll also use John Carlson in two-TE sets about 50 percent of the time. Harvin was a popular target for Ponder when they threw in the red zone, and Minnesota uses its tight ends more often near the goal line.

Defense:
Despite tying the Eagles for the most sacks in the NFL last year, the Vikings were unimpressive on the defensive side of the ball. DE Jared Allen (22 sacks in 2011) is still the most ferocious DE in football, but this secondary is awful, coming off an eight-interception season with 251 passing YPG allowed. Allen posted a career year, falling one sack short of the league record, despite having to play on a below-average defense where he gets double-teamed on most plays. His durability and consistency are simply unmatched among NFL defensive linemen. One of the beneficiaries of all the attention that gets paid to Allen is fellow DL Brian Robison. After signing a three-year deal before the 2011 season, Robison earned his keep with a career-best performance. LB Chad Greenway is a bit one-dimensional as a run-stopper, but he has excelled in that area—Greenway is second in the NFL in total tackles (395) over the past three years. When healthy, Antonie Winfield is still excellent in run support, but at 35 years old he’s not getting any more durable. The Vikings need him to stay healthy and effective if they’re to have any chance of keeping up with the passing games of the teams in the division.

Key Offseason Moves:
ADDITIONS
RB Lex Hilliard (from Dolphins)
WR Jerome Simpson (from Bengals)
TE John Carlson (from Seahawks)
OT Geoff Schwartz (from Panthers)
DE Jeff Charleston (from Saints)
LB Marvin Mitchell (from Dolphins)
CB Chris Carr (from Ravens)
CB Zack Bowman (from Bears)

SUBTRACTIONS
RB Lorenzo Booker (Bears)
WR Greg Camarillo (Saints)
TE Visanthe Shiancoe (Patriots)
G Steve Hutchinson (Titans)
G Anthony Herrera (released)
DT Remi Ayodele (Saints)
LB Kenny Onatolu (Panthers)
CB Cedric Griffin (Redskins)
CB Asher Allen (retired)
S Tyrell Johnson (Dolphins)
PK Ryan Longwell (released)
LS Matt Katula (Steelers)

2012 Schedule:
2012 Schedule Strength: 19.50 (25th toughest in NFL)
Week 1 - Jacksonville
Week 2 - at Indianapolis
Week 3 - San Francisco
Week 4 - at Detroit
Week 5 - Tennessee
Week 6 - at Washington
Week 7 - Arizona
Week 8 - Tampa Bay
Week 9 - at Seattle
Week 10 - Detroit
Week 11 - BYE WEEK
Week 12 - at Chicago
Week 13 - at Green Bay
Week 14 - Chicago
Week 15 - at St. Louis
Week 16 - at Houston
Week 17 - Green Bay

StatFox Take: Although this is the eighth-easiest schedule in the NFL, the Vikings just don’t have the offensive firepower to hang with most of these teams, especially if Adrian Peterson misses a significant portion of the year. Considering Minnesota has lost 11 straight NFC North contests, and the division is only getting stronger, it’s difficult to bank on any division wins. Even if the Vikings go 1-5 in NFC North play, they still need to go 6-4 versus the rest of the schedule to eclipse the Over mark. With a young quarterback and a defense that allowed the second-most points in the NFL last year, a 10-loss season seems imminent.
Prediction: UNDER 6 wins (-130)

All NFL Previews

AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers

AFC South
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans

AFC West
Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs
Oakland Raiders
San Diego Chargers

NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Redskins

NFC North
Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings

NFC South
Atlanta Falcons - Saturday, August 25
Carolina Panthers - Sunday, August 26
New Orleans Saints - Monday, August 27
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Tuesday, August 28

NFC West
Arizona Cardinals - Wednesday, August 29
San Francisco 49ers - Thursday, August 30
Seattle Seahawks - Friday, August 31
St. Louis Rams - Saturday, September 1