ATLANTA FALCONS

2012 Odds:
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Odds to Win NFC South: 3/2
Odds to Win NFC Championship: 12/1
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLVII: 25/1
Regular Season Wins Over/Under: 9

2012 Preview:
Offense:
New offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter isn’t nearly as run-happy as departed play-caller Mike Mularkey, so this offense won’t be nearly as ground-heavy as it’s been in recent seasons. Atlanta was largely a man-blocking team under Mularkey, but Koetter runs a mix of man and zone, requiring an adjustment for the offensive line. As for the backs, Michael Turner is declining, and Jacquizz Rodgers has carved out a role as a change-of-pace back who will get the ball in a variety of ways. Koetter coached 5-foot-6 Maurice Jones-Drew in Jacksonville, and while MJD is thicker, Koetter won’t hesitate to use the 5-foot-6 Rodgers. Koetter tends to not mess around with a lot of play-action in the red zone, so near the goal line is where Turner will continue to earn his money.

Koetter likes to get his receivers stretching the field, especially on play-action, and he’s always been able to find ways to get the ball to his tight ends, which is good news for Tony Gonzalez. Roddy White should again be Matt Ryan’s No. 1 target, and Julio Jones will be targeted more frequently downfield. One of Koetter’s biggest challenges is to improve the screen game, which was non-existent in Atlanta. That’s why Rodgers could be in for a much bigger role. He also plans on utilizing the no-huddle offense that the Falcons used effectively at times last year.

Defense:
The Falcons have a decent overall defense, but they lost their middle linebacker Curtis Lofton to the Saints. He’ll be replaced by Sean Weatherspoon, who displayed outstanding range on the outside last season, but may take some time to adjust to the new role. The addition of CB Asante Samuel instantly improves Atlanta’s secondary because he has the ability to make opposing quarterbacks pay for trying to avoid throwing at Brent Grimes, who is also an opportunistic playmaker capable of covering No. 1 receivers. DE John Abraham was the only player to surpass four sacks last season. Abraham can’t keep his 10-sack production up forever, but he’s still a solid tackler who has the ability to pop the football loose. Expect another productive season from the 34-year-old.

Key Offseason Moves:
ADDITIONS
FB Lousaka Polite (from Patriots)
CB Asante Samuel (from Eagles)
S Chris Hope (from Titans)

SUBTRACTIONS
FB Ovie Mughelli (Rams)
WR/KR Eric Weems (Bears)
LB Curtis Lofton (Saints)
CB Kelvin Hayden (Bears)
S James Sanders (Cardinals)

2012 Schedule:
2012 Schedule Strength: 20.06 (20th toughest in NFL)
Week 1 - at Kansas City
Week 2 - Denver
Week 3 - at San Diego
Week 4 - Carolina
Week 5 - at Washington
Week 6 - Oakland
Week 7 - BYE WEEK
Week 8 - at Philadelphia
Week 9 - Dallas
Week 10 - at New Orleans
Week 11 - Arizona
Week 12 - at Tampa Bay
Week 13 - New Orleans
Week 14 - at Carolina
Week 15 - New York Giants
Week 16 - at Detroit
Week 17 - Tampa Bay

StatFox Take: In an interesting scheduling twist, the Falcons do not play consecutive home games, or consecutive road games, for the entire season. They also play just one division opponent in the first half of the season and complete their entire AFC West docket within the year’s first six games. Considering the AFC West isn’t particularly strong, this should allow Atlanta to roll up a 5-1 record going into its bye week. Then all the club needs to do is to go .500 the rest of the way, which includes three easy games hosting the Cardinals and two divisional matchups with the lowly Buccaneers. The Saints may be the division favorite, but the Falcons are a more well-rounded team and should win the NFC South.
Prediction: OVER 9 wins (-140)

All NFL Previews

AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers

AFC South
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans

AFC West
Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs
Oakland Raiders
San Diego Chargers

NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Redskins

NFC North
Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings

NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
Carolina Panthers - Sunday, August 26
New Orleans Saints - Monday, August 27
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Tuesday, August 28

NFC West
Arizona Cardinals - Wednesday, August 29
San Francisco 49ers - Thursday, August 30
Seattle Seahawks - Friday, August 31
St. Louis Rams - Saturday, September 1