NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

2012 Odds:
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Odds to Win NFC South: Even
Odds to Win NFC Championship: 8/1
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLVII: 16/1
Regular Season Wins Over/Under: 9.5

2012 Preview:
Offense:
While this will be a trying year with head coach Sean Payton suspended, offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael Jr. has been his right hand man running the offense for the past three seasons, calling plays while Payton was recovering from a broken leg last year. New Orleans will continue to use its versatile, three-headed running back monster with a series of different blocking schemes up front. Mark Ingram will likely lead them in carries again, most often serving as a second-half closer. Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles usually split carries in the first half, though Sproles is most often used as a receiver as opposed to a ball carrier. Ingram will take most of the red zone carries, though not exclusively.

Carmichael came onto the staff as quarterbacks coach in 2006, the same year Drew Brees arrived. New Orleans will continue to use spread principles and will be fine with Brees running the show. TE Jimmy Graham and receiver Marques Colston are targets 1 and 1A for Brees, who is more comfortable throwing to receivers facing him. Because they use two backs often, slot receiver Lance Moore plays only about 50 percent of their snaps. Sproles is the main catch-and-run threat, getting screen passes and occasionally splitting wide. Thomas is used often in the screen game as well. And with Robert Meachem gone, Devery Henderson becomes the primary deep threat. Graham is the No. 1 target in the red zone but Sproles, despite his size, plays a big role on screens and swings, creating after the catch.

Defense:
There is not much to like about this defense, which ranked 30th in pass defense and is coming off a second straight season with a meager nine interceptions. Defensive leader LB Jonathan Vilma is suspended for bounty nonsense and the team’s second-leading tackler from last season, LB Jo-Lonn Dunbar, is now in St. Louis. They’ll be replaced by Curtis Lofton, who takes over at middle linebacker after playing the same position for the Falcons last season, and David Hawthorne, who was a solid run-stopper at middle linebacker for Seattle in 2011 and will likely switch to the weak side. Safety Roman Harper often blitzed and played almost exclusively in the box under former defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, and he will likely have a less aggressive role under new coordinator Steve Spagnuolo.

Key Offseason Moves:
ADDITIONS
QB Luke McCown (from Jaguars)
WR Greg Camarillo (from Vikings)
TE Daniel Graham (from Titans)
G Ben Grubbs (from Ravens)
DT Brodrick Bunkley (from Broncos)
DT Remi Ayodele (from Vikings)
LB Curtis Lofton (from Falcons)
LB David Hawthorne (from Seahawks)
LB Barrett Ruud (from Seahawks)
LB Chris Chamberlain (from Rams); placed on IR
CB Elbert Mack (from Buccaneers)

SUBTRACTIONS
WR Robert Meachem (Chargers)
OT Pat McQuistan (Cowboys)
G Carl Nicks (Buccaneers)
DT Shaun Rogers (Giants)
DE Jeff Charleston (Vikings)
NT Aubrayo Franklin (Chargers)
LB Jo-Lonn Dunbar (Rams)
CB Tracy Porter (Broncos)
CB Leigh Torrence (Jaguars)

2012 Schedule:
2012 Schedule Strength: 19.13 (29th toughest in NFL)
Week 1 - Washington
Week 2 - at Carolina
Week 3 - Kansas City
Week 4 - at Green Bay
Week 5 - San Diego
Week 6 - BYE WEEK
Week 7 - at Tampa Bay
Week 8 - at Denver
Week 9 - Philadelphia
Week 10 - Atlanta
Week 11 - at Oakland
Week 12 - San Francisco
Week 13 - at Atlanta
Week 14 - at New York Giants
Week 15 - Tampa Bay
Week 16 - at Dallas
Week 17 - Carolina

StatFox Take: Although New Orleans has the fourth-easiest schedule in the league, they have lost to plenty of bad teams in the past two seasons, such as the Cardinals, Browns, Buccaneers and Rams. This year, they will have to face some top-notch quarterbacks in Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning, Michael Vick, Eli Manning, Tony Romo, Matt Ryan (twice) and Cam Newton (twice). That doesn’t bode well for such a soft passing defense. Although this team has won 10+ games for three straight years, the better play here is to take the plus-money and expect them to finish no better than 9-7.
Prediction: UNDER 9.5 wins (+115)

All NFL Previews

AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers

AFC South
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans

AFC West
Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs
Oakland Raiders
San Diego Chargers

NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Redskins

NFC North
Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings

NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
Carolina Panthers
New Orleans Saints
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Tuesday, August 28

NFC West
Arizona Cardinals - Wednesday, August 29
San Francisco 49ers - Thursday, August 30
Seattle Seahawks - Friday, August 31
St. Louis Rams - Saturday, September 1