TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

2012 Odds:
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Odds to Win NFC South: 10/1
Odds to Win NFC Championship: 50/1
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLVII: 150/1
Regular Season Wins Over/Under: 5.5

2012 Preview:
Offense:
The Bucs seem to be gearing up to do a lot of running this season. New head coach Greg Schiano oversaw a run-heavy team at Rutgers, and offensive line coach Bob Bostad oversaw Wisconsin’s run-heavy power game among his previous jobs. They also added an elite left guard in Carl Nicks, a first-round back in Doug Martin and a great blocking wide receiver in Vincent Jackson. The Bucs will use primarily a zone-blocking scheme with a lot of inside runs. LeGarrette Blount and Martin will probably be close to a 50/50 share on early downs, with Martin taking all third down reps. While Blount will have his role greatly reduced between the 20’s, he’ll have a chance to keep goal line carries.

New offensive coordinator Mike Sullivan’s offense will be far more aggressive getting the ball downfield, which should be a nice match for Josh Freeman’s arm strength and Jackson’s downfield ball skills. The reads generally go deep-to-short and rarely side-to-side. So after Jackson, Freeman will more likely come down to Preston Parker than go across to Mike Williams. The Bucs also plan on using their backs in the passing game much more often, which is why they traded up into the first round to grab Martin. When Tampa throws in the red zone and down near the goal line, Jackson and Williams are the team’s most capable targets.

Defense:
After allowing a league-high 30.9 PPG and ranking 30th in total defense, there’s nowhere to go but up, right? Schiano is excited about young DLs Gerald McCoy and Adrian Clayborn, and also No. 7 overall pick S Mark Barron, but Tampa’s schedule is jam-packed with high-powered offenses. If McCoy can remain healthy—a big “if” for a guy who has played in only 19 games over two NFL seasons—his presence should help free up Clayborn to rush the quarterback more freely and more often. McCoy is both powerful and shifty with great feet, and Schiano has said he expects the former No. 3 overall pick to dominate opponents in 2012. Barron, meanwhile, is excellent both stopping the run in the box and in pass coverage.

Key Offseason Moves:
ADDITIONS
QB Dan Orlovsky (from Colts)
WR Vincent Jackson (from Chargers)
WR Jordan Shipley (from Bengals)
WR Tiquan Underwood (from Patriots)
TE Dallas Clark (from Colts)
OT Jamon Meredith (from Steelers)
G Carl Nicks (from Saints)
DT Amobi Okoye (from Bears)
DT Gary Gibson (from Rams)
CB Eric Wright (from Lions)

SUBTRACTIONS
QB Josh Johnson (49ers)
RB Kregg Lumpkin (Seahawks)
WR Dezmon Briscoe (Redskins)
WR/KR Michael Spurlock (Chargers)
TE Kellen Winslow (Seahawks)
OT James Lee (Redskins)
C Jeff Faine (released)
DE Tim Crowder (released)
DT Brian Price (Bears)
DT John McCargo (Bears)
DT Albert Haynesworth (released)
LB Geno Hayes (Bears)
CB Elbert Mack (Saints)
S Tanard Jackson (Redskins)
S Sean Jones (Lions)

2012 Schedule:
2012 Schedule Strength: 20.69 (7th toughest in NFL)
Week 1 - Carolina
Week 2 - at New York Giants
Week 3 - at Dallas
Week 4 - Washington
Week 5 - BYE WEEK
Week 6 - Kansas City
Week 7 - New Orleans
Week 8 - at Minnesota
Week 9 - at Oakland
Week 10 - San Diego
Week 11 - at Carolina
Week 12 - Atlanta
Week 13 - at Denver
Week 14 - Philadelphia
Week 15 - at New Orleans
Week 16 - St. Louis
Week 17 - at Atlanta

StatFox Take: Tampa Bay, which lost its final 10 games last year, has a schedule jam-packed with high-powered offenses (Giants, Cowboys, Chargers, Broncos and Eagles) that will torch this young defense. And offensively, the Bucs just don’t have the firepower to hang with most NFL offenses, especially those in their NFC South division. Josh Freeman has a great weapon with Vincent Jackson, but unless rookie RB Doug Martin keeps defenses honest, they will once again struggle to move the football.
Prediction: UNDER 5.5 wins (+115)

All NFL Previews

AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers

AFC South
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans

AFC West
Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs
Oakland Raiders
San Diego Chargers

NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Redskins

NFC North
Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings

NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
Carolina Panthers
New Orleans Saints
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFC West
Arizona Cardinals - Wednesday, August 29
San Francisco 49ers - Thursday, August 30
Seattle Seahawks - Friday, August 31
St. Louis Rams - Saturday, September 1