SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

2012 Odds:
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Odds to Win NFC West: 1/4
Odds to Win NFC Championship: 9/2
Odds to Win Super Bowl XLVII: 9/1
Regular Season Wins Over/Under: 9.5

2012 Preview:
Offense:
Despite adding firepower to their receiving corps, the Niners offense will still be based on the power running game. Their scheme is almost exclusively man blocking and almost all between the tackles. Due to the presence of youngsters Kendall Hunter and LaMichael James, they’re unlikely to run Frank Gore into the ground like they have in recent seasons. Assuming he beats out veteran Brandon Jacobs, Hunter is more of a traditional back-up, while James will be the change-of-pace back and should see a lot of his reps on passing downs. There’s a good chance Jacobs will earn short-yardage duties. The Niners are also very run-heavy in the red zone, with Gore serving as the team’s main option in goal-to-go situations.

Head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman have built a passing game that will work for quarterback Alex Smith. Most often Michael Crabtree is the first option, as they can get him isolated on the outside. Vernon Davis came on strong late once he picked up the offense, and he’ll be used deeper down the middle of the field. Randy Moss will likely step into Braylon Edwards’ seldom-used deep threat role. When they go three-wide, which is often, Mario Manningham will play the outside with Crabtree sliding into a slot. Crabtree is Smith’s most frequent target in the red zone because of the attention Davis draws. The 49ers will, however, often force it to Davis in the middle of the field.

Defense:
The 49ers’ defense is the complete package, with the league’s best linebackers, a disruptive front four and an improving secondary. Justin Smith is arguably the NFL’s most effective 3-4 DE—he’s one of the best in the league at stopping the run and also has more pass-rushing ability than your average two-gap end, with 29.5 sacks over the past four seasons. The Niners’ defensive scheme funnels ball carriers to Patrick Willis, which is why he consistently racks up more than 100 solo tackles per season. (He was on pace for 110 in 2011 before suffering a hamstring injury in Week 13.) Picking up the slack in Willis’ absence was NaVorro Bowman, who was excellent in his first season as a starter. San Francisco also boasts an exceptional return game with speedy Ted Ginn Jr. one of those guys who’s a threat to bring any returnable kick to the house. Ginn was obviously sorely missed in the NFC Championship Game, when ill-timed fumbles by second-string return man Kyle Williams essentially cost the 49ers a trip to the Super Bowl.

Key Offseason Moves:
ADDITIONS
QB Josh Johnson (from Buccaneers)
RB Brandon Jacobs (from Giants)
RB Rock Cartwright (from Raiders)
WR Mario Manningham (from Giants)
WR Randy Moss (did not play in 2011)
G Leonard Davis (from Lions)
LB Ikaika Alama-Francis (from Dolphins)
S Darcel McBath (played with Jaguars in 2011)

SUBTRACTIONS
FB Noran Morris (Texans)
WR Josh Morgan (Redskins)
TE Justin Peelle (Steelers)
G Adam Snyder (Cardinals)
G Chilo Rachal (Bears)
LB Blake Costanzo (Bears)
CB Shawntae Spencer (Raiders)
S Madieu Williams (Redskins)
S Reggie Smith (Panthers)

2012 Schedule:
2012 Schedule Strength: 20.63 (10th toughest in NFL)
Week 1 - at Green Bay
Week 2 - Detroit
Week 3 - at Minnesota
Week 4 - at New York Jets
Week 5 - Buffalo
Week 6 - New York Giants
Week 7 - Seattle
Week 8 - at Arizona
Week 9 - BYE WEEK
Week 10 - St. Louis
Week 11 - Chicago
Week 12 - at New Orleans
Week 13 - at St. Louis
Week 14 - Miami
Week 15 - at New England
Week 16 - at Seattle
Week 17 - Arizona

StatFox Take: The Niners schedule is the 10th-toughest in football, but they’ll still be favored in at least a dozen games, which is great considering they were 10-1 SU as a favorite last year. Unlike some of the other Super Bowl contenders that need to score 35 points a game to win, the 49ers are very comfortable playing low-scoring affairs. They led the NFL in turnover margin last year (+28) and threw just five interceptions the entire season. With once again the best defense in the NFL, the Over is a great play despite the unfavorable payoff.
Prediction: OVER 9.5 wins (-160)

All NFL Previews

AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers

AFC South
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans

AFC West
Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs
Oakland Raiders
San Diego Chargers

NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Redskins

NFC North
Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings

NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
Carolina Panthers
New Orleans Saints
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFC West
Arizona Cardinals
San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks - Friday, August 31
St. Louis Rams - Saturday, September 1