SAN DIEGO PADRES (63-74)
at LOS ANGELES DODGERS (73-64)
First pitch: Wednesday, 10:10 p.m. EDT
Line: Los Angeles -150, San Diego +140, Total: 7½
After the Padres won 6-3 in extra innings Tuesday night, they will look to take the rubber match of this three-game series Wednesday against the Dodgers.
Tuesday’s loss snapped a three-game winning streak for the Dodgers and a three-game losing streak for the Padres. Clayton Richard takes the hill for San Diego, amid a stretch in which he has won each of his past three starts, going eight innings in two of them for a 2.42 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in that span. He has a 3.74 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 2012 and has a 12-12 record, averaging an impressive 6.8 innings per start. He faces Aaron Harang, who sports a 9-8 record, 3.76 ERA and 1.39 WHIP this year. The Dodgers have already seen Richard three times already this season, and even though they have won two of those games, they have yet to really figure him out with just eight runs off him in 20.3 innings. In his career, Richard owns an impressive 6-2 mark (7-4) team against Los Angeles with a 2.60 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. Look for him to continue his success. Play on SAN DIEGO as heavy underdogs here.
These two FoxSheets trends also favor the Padres:
SAN DIEGO is 43-37 (53.8%+14.7 Units) against the money line vs. teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 4.2, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 2*).
SAN DIEGO is 22-14 (61.1%, +12.6 Units) against the money line vs. teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 4.8, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 2*).
Richard is coming off a stellar month of August, where he won five of six starts with a miniscule 2.42 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. In four starts this year, Richard’s biggest flaw is his propensity to give up the long ball, already having served up 25 jacks this year, 17 of which have come in his 16 road starts. But that could explain his success against the Dodgers, who have just 93 home runs, the second-fewest total in the majors. While Richard pitches deep into games, he is supported by a bullpen that has a solid 3.30 ERA in 2012 with a whopping 430 strikeouts in 406.2 innings.
The Dodgers have owned the Padres at home with a 16-10 record over the past three years and a 5-3 mark this season. Overall, they are 30-20 versus San Diego in the last three years, including a 9-5 record this season. Harang has pitched well against the Padres this season, going 1-1 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, punching out 29 hitters in his 24.2 innings over four starts. If for some reason Harang doesn’t have his best stuff, his bullpen should be able to pick him up. Dodger relievers have a 2.34 ERA and 1.13 WHIP at home this year with 205 strikeouts in 196.1 innings.