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The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping

NASCAR heads north to New Hampshire Sunday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 9/23/2012  at  2:02:00 AM
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NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
Sylvania 300

Sunday, September 23 – 1:00 p.m. EDT
New Hampshire Motor Speedway – Loudon, NH

The Chase for the Cup continues in the Northeast on Sunday as the NASCAR drivers try their luck at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. This intermediate track, completed in 1990, is a 1.058-mile oval with variable degrees (2-to-7) of banking on the turns, with a one-degree banking on the two stretches, which both measure 1,500 feet.

Odds to Win Race

DriverOdds
Denny Hamlin5-to-1
Jimmie Johnson5-to-1
Brad Keselowski7-to-1
Tony Stewart7-to-1
Kasey Kahne8-to-1
Jeff Gordon10-to-1
Dale Earnhardt Jr.10-to-1
Kyle Busch10-to-1
Clint Bowyer12-to-1
Martin Truex Jr.15-to-1
Kevin Harvick15-to-1
Carl Edwards25-to-1
Ryan Newman25-to-1
Matt Kenseth25-to-1
Greg Biffle25-to-1
FIELD (Any other driver)50-to-1
Joey Logano60-to-1
Brian Vickers75-to-1
David Gilliland100-to-1
Jeff Burton100-to-1
Juan Pablo Montoya100-to-1
Paul Menard100-to-1
Jamie McMurray100-to-1
David Ragan100-to-1
Marcos Ambrose100-to-1
Sam Hornish Jr.100-to-1
Aric Almirola100-to-1
Regan Smith100-to-1
Bobby Labonte100-to-1
Kurt Busch100-to-1

Drivers to Watch

Brad Keselowski (7/1) - He’s no longer a great payout, having won his fourth race of the season last week in Chicago, but if you’re wagering on one driver to take home the checkered flag at Loudon, Keselowski is your man. He has 10 top-10’s in his past 11 races, which includes seven top-5’s and a pair of victories. One of those top-5’s was at this track, where he finished second a year ago. In the two New Hampshire races before that, he started fifth and on the pole.

Kasey Kahne (8/1) - He is the most recent champion in Loudon, winning the Lenox Industrial Tools 301 just two months ago with 12-to-1 odds. Kahne’s payout is not as favorable this time around, but he’s still worth a sizeable bit. He’s earned the outside pole in three of his past four races at New Hampshire, and finished 15th or better in each of his past six Loudon races that his engine did not fail him in. Not only does Kahne thrive on tracks of this distance, but he’s also heating up at the right time, tallying top-3 finishes in five of his past 11 starts.

Ryan Newman (25/1) - Newman is getting darkhorse odds despite winning three times on this track in his career, plus six top-5’s and 14 top-10’s. And these successful runs haven’t been ancient history either, as he’s cranked out top-10’s in five of his past six Loudon races, winning two poles during this stretch. And for even more recent history, Newman has finished 11th or better in eight of his past 10 races this season. Those two bad finishes were both the result of accidents, which he has completely avoided in 21 career starts at New Hampshire. Newman’s 25-to-1 odds are worthy of a small wager.

Clint Bowyer (12/1) - The oddsmakers are spot-on with making Bowyer one of the favorites to win this race. His crew chief Brian Pattie has admitted that the team was rather conservative in making sure Bowyer made the Chase, and now they’re going all-out to get some wins. Bowyer finished third on this track in July and already has two fall wins in Loudon, coming in 2007 and 2010. He also won at Richmond two weeks ago, on a track that is very similar to Loudon. Considering how well he’s been racing lately with top-10’s in six of his past seven races, Bowyer is worth a unit or double-unit bet on Sunday.

Sam Hornish Jr. (100/1) - If you’re into betting longshots, take a gamble on Hornish Jr. who has three straight 11th-place finishes as he’s settling in nicely since taking over for the suspended AJ Allmendinger a couple of months ago. Although he placed just 22nd in that July race in Loudon, Hornish Jr. finished 10th in his previous visit in 2010.

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